Comments on: Circular Arguments and a Complex World http://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/circular-arguments-and-a-complex-world.html Science Blog from Freelance Science Writer David Bradley Sat, 07 Nov 2009 00:41:44 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Mika Aaltonen http://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/circular-arguments-and-a-complex-world.html/comment-page-1#comment-142160 Mika Aaltonen Mon, 03 Sep 2007 07:42:45 +0000 http://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/circular-arguments-and-a-complex-world.html#comment-142160 Causality is a concept that needs to be considered with care as the way we comprehend it has significant practical implications for the sciences as well as in business. I think that the way we think about cause and effect is the most important cognitive framework we have. Cognitive frameworks are products of, and simultaneously can produce, an interactive process of instantiation. Yet, they are relatively seldom explicitly evaluated. This article tends to provide new ways to describe how the future arises, evolves and is influenced. It is based on work and discussions with experts and colleagues, so perhaps one can call it esoteric, but it is also of interest to governments and major corporations. Mika Aaltonen Causality is a concept that needs to be considered with care as the way we comprehend it has significant practical implications for the sciences as well as in business.

I think that the way we think about cause and effect is the most important cognitive framework we have. Cognitive frameworks are products of, and simultaneously can produce, an interactive process of instantiation. Yet, they are relatively seldom explicitly evaluated.

This article tends to provide new ways to describe how the future arises, evolves and is influenced. It is based on work and discussions with experts and colleagues, so perhaps one can call it esoteric, but it is also of interest to governments and major corporations.

Mika Aaltonen

]]> By: David Bradley http://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/circular-arguments-and-a-complex-world.html/comment-page-1#comment-141353 David Bradley Fri, 31 Aug 2007 16:59:53 +0000 http://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/circular-arguments-and-a-complex-world.html#comment-141353 Ian, Aaltonen's affiliation got hacked off in the final edit - Mika Aaltonen is the Head and Chairman of the Board of StraX (the research unit for strategic intelligence and exploration of futures) at the Helsinki University of Technology. As far as I know he's not an -ologist but an -onomist (you can fill in the blank), I have to admit it was an interesting exercise and something of an experiment to interpret this particular paper. Intriguing that it has already generated more comments than the double slits experiment article, which I hope was a little more articulate albeit in discussing an even more esoteric subject. Ian, Aaltonen’s affiliation got hacked off in the final edit – Mika Aaltonen is the Head and Chairman of the Board of StraX (the research unit for strategic intelligence and exploration of futures) at the Helsinki University of Technology. As far as I know he’s not an -ologist but an -onomist (you can fill in the blank), I have to admit it was an interesting exercise and something of an experiment to interpret this particular paper. Intriguing that it has already generated more comments than the double slits experiment article, which I hope was a little more articulate albeit in discussing an even more esoteric subject.

]]> By: Ian Kemmish http://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/circular-arguments-and-a-complex-world.html/comment-page-1#comment-141351 Ian Kemmish Fri, 31 Aug 2007 16:41:34 +0000 http://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/circular-arguments-and-a-complex-world.html#comment-141351 Am I the only one amused by the irony of a particularly verbose and vague "ologist" urging us all to be more self-critical? If you want someone to tell you that happiness equals the absence of story, or that story equals the absence of happiness (which appears to the thrust of the final paragraph), read Tolstoy, and especially his "Confession" (although much of his fictional work resonates with this). To say nothing of Buddhism. Both are much more articulate than this guy. Am I the only one amused by the irony of a particularly verbose and vague “ologist” urging us all to be more self-critical?

If you want someone to tell you that happiness equals the absence of story, or that story equals the absence of happiness (which appears to the thrust of the final paragraph), read Tolstoy, and especially his “Confession” (although much of his fictional work resonates with this). To say nothing of Buddhism. Both are much more articulate than this guy.

]]> By: David Bradley http://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/circular-arguments-and-a-complex-world.html/comment-page-1#comment-141346 David Bradley Fri, 31 Aug 2007 16:32:23 +0000 http://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/circular-arguments-and-a-complex-world.html#comment-141346 Jordan, I think essentially you hit on the root of religion in your comment. The ultimate quest for a causal agent... Jordan, I think essentially you hit on the root of religion in your comment. The ultimate quest for a causal agent…

]]> By: Jordan http://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/circular-arguments-and-a-complex-world.html/comment-page-1#comment-141340 Jordan Fri, 31 Aug 2007 16:08:18 +0000 http://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/circular-arguments-and-a-complex-world.html#comment-141340 Have a look at "When They Severed Earth From Sky" by Barber and Barber, who list a number of "principles" by which actual real-life events become myths and legends. One of these "principles" is the idea that the human brain looks for a "willer" (a root cause) for every event -- a constant search for causality. Have a look at “When They Severed Earth From Sky” by Barber and Barber, who list a number of “principles” by which actual real-life events become myths and legends. One of these “principles” is the idea that the human brain looks for a “willer” (a root cause) for every event — a constant search for causality.

]]> By: Wayne Smallman http://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/circular-arguments-and-a-complex-world.html/comment-page-1#comment-141337 Wayne Smallman Fri, 31 Aug 2007 15:53:34 +0000 http://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/circular-arguments-and-a-complex-world.html#comment-141337 Trying to sound like the devils advocate for a moment: could we not argue that the kids are the random variables we need to plan around? But yes, I agree with Jim, if it is a question of story telling (and a lack thereof), we've lost the art... Trying to sound like the devils advocate for a moment: could we not argue that the kids are the random variables we need to plan around?

But yes, I agree with Jim, if it is a question of story telling (and a lack thereof), we’ve lost the art…

]]> By: David Bradley http://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/circular-arguments-and-a-complex-world.html/comment-page-1#comment-141335 David Bradley Fri, 31 Aug 2007 15:49:54 +0000 http://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/circular-arguments-and-a-complex-world.html#comment-141335 Interesting point Jim, which brings the conclusion of this rather esoteric research paper back down to earth with a crash. Interesting point Jim, which brings the conclusion of this rather esoteric research paper back down to earth with a crash.

]]> By: Jim Corlett http://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/circular-arguments-and-a-complex-world.html/comment-page-1#comment-141333 Jim Corlett Fri, 31 Aug 2007 15:43:58 +0000 http://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/circular-arguments-and-a-complex-world.html#comment-141333 "human beings are storytelling animals, this premise may seem obvious but arises not because we like fairytales and fables but because of the way we perceive cause and effect" - when does cause and effect kick in? judging by the spate of gun/knife killings, we're not telling the kids enough tales these days... or the effects are not effective enough - cf The Bourne Conspiracy and other films/games of this ilk - blown up, beaten up, shot at, thrown all around the place and just a dinky cut on the eyebrow to show for it... just watched some kids mindlessly attacking a new fence around a school - cause: ?boredom; effect: probably not even thought about (would not even say "trying to damage" - "mindless" sums it up - they weren't even thinking about the whys and the what'll happens...) “human beings are storytelling animals, this premise may seem obvious but arises not because we like fairytales and fables but because of the way we perceive cause and effect” – when does cause and effect kick in? judging by the spate of gun/knife killings, we’re not telling the kids enough tales these days… or the effects are not effective enough – cf The Bourne Conspiracy and other films/games of this ilk – blown up, beaten up, shot at, thrown all around the place and just a dinky cut on the eyebrow to show for it… just watched some kids mindlessly attacking a new fence around a school – cause: ?boredom; effect: probably not even thought about (would not even say “trying to damage” – “mindless” sums it up – they weren’t even thinking about the whys and the what’ll happens…)

]]> By: David Bradley http://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/circular-arguments-and-a-complex-world.html/comment-page-1#comment-141304 David Bradley Fri, 31 Aug 2007 14:21:26 +0000 http://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/circular-arguments-and-a-complex-world.html#comment-141304 Point taken...sometimes I feel like I'm just so much chaff... Point taken…sometimes I feel like I’m just so much chaff…

]]> By: Wayne Smallman http://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/circular-arguments-and-a-complex-world.html/comment-page-1#comment-141300 Wayne Smallman Fri, 31 Aug 2007 14:14:32 +0000 http://www.sciencebase.com/science-blog/circular-arguments-and-a-complex-world.html#comment-141300 "How does one anticipate a random drought or a flood, for instance?" It's not so much an anticipation, but the effort to make provision for, by building stores for perishables. That too has been going on for thousands of years. Setting food aside for lean times is up their with language and tool usage -- the very stuff that separates us from the vast majority of the other animals. Moving forward, meeting greater environmental challenges will present problems we as a species are either incapable of, or because of certain political issues aren't prepared to make the right and proper decisions for. Then it's Mother Nature's turn to separate the wheat from the chaff... “How does one anticipate a random drought or a flood, for instance?”

It’s not so much an anticipation, but the effort to make provision for, by building stores for perishables. That too has been going on for thousands of years.

Setting food aside for lean times is up their with language and tool usage — the very stuff that separates us from the vast majority of the other animals.

Moving forward, meeting greater environmental challenges will present problems we as a species are either incapable of, or because of certain political issues aren’t prepared to make the right and proper decisions for.

Then it’s Mother Nature’s turn to separate the wheat from the chaff…

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