Swine Flu

pig-swine-fluUPDATE: World Health Organisation took us to Phase 6 on June 11, which only means that they see the distribution of the virus across the globe as being at levels associated with a flu pandemic, the first such declaration since 1968. The virus itself has not become any worse nor have the chances of any individual dying from the disease increased.

Swine flu is still with us although the media hype has died down. There have been numerous cases and many deaths, but nothing on the scale of the millions predicted early on. Could this first wave strain now be evolving into a more virulent form that will affect the northern hemisphere more severely after the summer is over?

I’ve previously discussed the many latent diseases in hosts as rodents, birds, and cattle. Many of these are ready and willing to make the species leap to humans given the opportunity. For the last ten years or so bird flu and Asia have been the focus of much research and concern. However, the wave of swine flu (H1N1) infections that began in March-April 2009 in Mexico highlight the fact that a potentially lethal strain of virus can emerge from other species and not necessarily in Asia.

Currently, not all the deaths attributed to swine flu have been definitively associated with type A H1N1 influenza, the actual mortality rate could be as low as 1% or as high as 6.5% depending on how you count.

Should we be worried?

No. We should be cautious, but not worried. While some observers are suggesting serious caution others are advising that there is no reason for real concern yet. We are not quite at the danger levels of even the worldwide SARS epidemic and certainly not close to the Spanish flu pandemic that ravaged the world in 1918-9.

Is the WHO scaremongering too?

The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the Mexican/US swine flu outbreak as a “public health emergency of international concern”. It moved us to a Phase IV alert and then a Phase V alert and told us that the disease could no longer be contained. However, as things are panning out it would seem that this latest emergent virus is not even as bad as the common seasonal flu that kills tens of thousands of people every year. But, there a new strain could evolve in the coming weeks and months.

What is swine flu?

Swine flu is a type A influenza virus. It’s a subtype of H1N1 and is something of a misnomer.

Why is this new H1N1 virus called swine flu?

In the original testing many of the viral genes were shown to be similar to influenza viruses that normally occur in pigs in North America. But further studies have shown that this new virus is very different. It also has two genes from flu viruses present in European and Asian pigs as well as genes from bird flu and human flu strains. It is referred to as a “quadruple reassortant” virus.

What is unusual about the present strain?

The new strain is a hybrid of swine, human and avian flu viruses and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says it might spread from human to human but the level of virulence is not yet clear. UPDATE: There have been numerous deaths, but so far the vast majority of people infected have shown only mild symptoms and after treatment have recovered.

What are the symptoms?

Symptoms are similar to regular human flu: fever and chills, a cough, sore throat, aching limbs, headaches, and general malaise. However, there are reports of swine flu also causing diarrhoea and vomiting. Pneumonia and respiratory failure can occur leading to death as also happens in regular human flu.

Are there warning signs in children?

Children having trouble breathing, being averse to drinking, lethargy not waking up or not interacting, being so irritable that the child does not want to beheld, flu-like symptoms improve but then return with fever and worse cough, fever with a rash.

Are there any drugs to treat swine flu?

Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza) are the possible pharmaceutical frontline defences against the virus and are proving effective in treating patients diagnosed early enough. There is as yet no vaccine, although researchers are working hard to develop one. It takes several months to create a flu vaccine and any such vaccine will be effective against only the specific strain for which it was created. By the time we have a vaccine the virus may have either died out or evolved into a different strain resistant to the vaccine.

Has the disease spread to the USA?

Cases in California, Texas, and Kansas, have been confirmed and tests are being carried out on students at a school in New York. Cases have been seen in New Zealand, Spain, Scotland, and elsewhere; those infected have been recovering well.

How can we prevent the spread of swine flu?

People at risk should cover their mouth when they cough. They should regularly wash their hands with an alcohol-based cleaner and and avoid close contact with the sick. Patients with the disease should stay at home. There is no need to avoid eating pork.

Will there be a global flu epidemic?

“We do not know whether this swine flu virus or some other influenza virus will lead to the next pandemic,” says, Richard Besser, acting director of the CDC, “However, scientists around the world continue to monitor the virus and take its threat seriously.” UPDATE: the WHO raised its alert level from Phase IV to V, with recent infection rates in Japan, the WHO has been hinting that they will need to upgrade to pandemic Phase VI.

Will there be a second wave?

One of two outcomes are being forecast, first that this rather poorly virulent strain will continue spreading slowly but ultimately die out, thanks to a combination of low virulence and monitoring and isolation of outbreaks, or secondly it will mutate into something much more virulent and bring with it a fast-spreading and more lethal wave of influenza. Thankfully, in the Northern hemisphere, we are heading into summer and influenza viruses do not spread as efficiently in the summer as they do in the winter.

What’s next?

It is impossible to predict what virus will emerge from which host, there are countless different types of pathogen lying dormant in the countless different mammals across the globe. No one predicted SARS, AIDS, Ebola, West Nile virus, or swine flu. This time, health agencies have responded well and although the WHO is saying it is now impossible to “contain” swine flu, it seems that the first wave is not revealing itself to be quite as lethal as was at first feared. However, that does not detract from the possibility of a second wave of H1N1 emerging.

Is this a wake-up call?

At the very least this swine flu outbreak should wake us all up to either getting the dust off our (bird flu) pandemic plans (as the response is the same) or getting started with putting them together. This includes both businesses and individuals. If the outbreak dies out quickly and this turns out not to be the next global pandemic then we can be sure another strain will try to be at some point in the future. Pandemic preparedness for businesses should now be at the forefront of every business manager’s mind.

What is cyberchondria?

Cyberchondria is an anxiety disorder related to hyperchondria and brought on by reading too many tweets with the #swineflu tag, listening to conspiracy theorists, and viewing online news stories about diseases that scare the sheesh kebab out of you. But, just because you’re paranoid does not mean the disease isn’t out to get you.

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324 thoughts on “Swine Flu”

  1. Actually you should be cautious, because Swine Flu can hit you any time and it spreads like fire. The fact is, that is not much worse, than usual flu, but it can still knock you off your feet for a few weeks. Do you have the time to lay in bed for 20 days? My friend who lives in the US got sick and he said that skipping school has been fun, until he got that H1N1 flu. You cant enjoy vomiting and feeling sick all the time. The problem with him was, that he didn’t vaccinate himself. So if you don’t want to gamble with your luck and live in America, go and vaccinate yourselves.

  2. I think that this is important to conisder “UPDATE: World Health Organisation took us to Phase 6 on June 11, which only means that they see the distribution of the virus across the globe as being at levels associated with a flu pandemic, ”

    Although the swine flu may be associated with a flu pandemic I think that its important to take this issue seriously

  3. No. I spelled them correctly in English. The only words that flagged up were diarrhoea and defences, which are their correct English, as opposed to American spellings.

  4. It’s unlikely to be honest Paul. There may be some marginal benefit to not being deficient in any vitamins or minerals, but I doubt there are trials that would show that a lack of any one specific vitamin would make one significantly more susceptible to infection by H1N1 or any other pathogen for that matter. Moreover, I don’t tend to take at face value claims I receive from unknown “doctors” in spammy emails, I’d suggest you vet your inbox more carefully too.

  5. There is early, albeit anecdotal evidence that vitamin D may have a protective effect against infection with H1N1 flu. You may read more here healthjournalclub.blogspot.com/2009/11/vitamin-d-and-h1n1-swine-flu.html

  6. Ukraine out break of H1N1 has WHO flying into the country this coming Monday. Tissue samples being sent out now. 30 deaths show lungs blood soaked upon autopsy. The questions looms did H1N1 make a change? Are false negatives from errors or is H1N1 dodging the reagents and making changes the world needs to know about. Two other countries now reporting some changes to consider. India, and Norway. These would be three sources to have on the google as the numbers rose this week in the US of positives, hospitalizations, and fatalities.

  7. Well…we all wish that. I’m just not sure why you keep posting comments if you don’t feel qualified to make them, especially when you then email me to retract them! Is there a point?

  8. David, I truly hope that the doubters and people scared of the vaccine are misinformed. I have very little knowledge and don’t consider qualified enough to enter into any debate.

    Just very concerned about the pandemic and wish that the spread of the disease is stopped as early as possible.

  9. I am in India and do not know much about the ground realities there in the USA. May be the vaccine is really helpful in saving people from the disease. May be the fears and doubts people are expressing about the vaccine are no longer true.

    The issue about the vaccine could be soon put to rest. Though many people are reluctant to take the vaccine an equal number are in fact taking it. These vaccinated people hold the key. If they do not develop any major side effects and the vaccine can demonstrably prevent the spread, we will be saved.

    Hope the vaccine really works with very insignificant or no side effect on the recently vaccinated population.

  10. I don’t think it’s particularly helpful to the debate to include misinformed nonsense from the likes of the tabloid TV media nor to subscribe to the notion that some imaginary entity referred to as the “almighty” might intervene to solve the problem, when has such an entity intervened in the past to save us?

  11. David,

    people in the USA are divided on the issue of the vaccine. Some health experts say that the vaccine is more of a problem than the disease. Here are a few links that express their concerns:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1z7KSEnyxw

    http://edition.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/10/09/h1n1.vaccine.skepticism/index.html

    I am not favoring or opposing the administration of the vaccine. People have to make their choices after gathering all the information and consulting their physicians. Truly hope that NYT article is correct. Only the almighty can help in solving this grim health issue.

  12. David,

    i had not given any woo comment about homeopathy. Just informed about what is happening in India. i am neither a homeopathic practitioner nor a medicine seller. i have taken homeopathic meds and given it to my family for H1N1 prevention, but certainly don’t advise others to do so. It’s their lives and their choice. If the vaccine is harmless i will take that as well.

    286
    Chandkishore Patro Says:
    September 12th, 2009 at 1:01 pm

    By the way I am not advocating taking homeopathy medicine, just informing.

    My intention is that we should find out son what works or what doesn’t to prevent H1N1. May God give us a preventive medicine for this disease. Let the vaccine prove to have little or no side effect as WHO claims.

  13. Presidents Hardings parents were homeopath Dr.’s One involved in a scandal that killed a child in treatment. When President Harding died rumors abounded. He died of Coronay Artery Disease. But since he was on his way back from Alaska, some whispered mercury poisoning, others eyed Hardings’ personal Doc. who was a homeopathic Dr. He was notorious for treating with arsenic. (left over from by gone decade)

    Several times Florence Harding over-rode her husbands Dr. to call in the new Allopaths. One of note went to his bedside in CA. Years of high fat, alcohol, smoking, little exercize and bad women had taken their toll. It was the first time the nation awoke to heart health and risk factors.

    The fact that our nation at that time would suspect the side-effects of treating with homeopathic medicine tells us, even the common person was more likely to look to the use of poisons in the body to gain a cure or tolerance, as a myth with deadly consequences.

    Much later the view of allergy treatment were lassoed by the homeopath style. Not because tolerance and exposure was well understood, but because homeopathics wanted Medical Model approval. They never got it. Hebalists a different ball game. They sought to see what in nature had science or medical model weight. I would point out opium, & fox glove as examples,

  14. @David Bradley,

    Anybody can prove homeopathy in the world, just bought any standard homeopathic dilution or pills (single remedy not a combination) take it frequently, it is an open challenge to the world that person will get the symptoms of the medicine used, those are already noted in the Materia Medica. This is called homeopathic proving, but why the scientific community doesn’t try the simplest and only way to the date, to see does it works or not?

    Possibly, they are afraid if they agree with the homeopathy a greatest question will raise how and why does it works and the answer is far beyond the imagination of science. That science who thinks the matter is eliminated in 30c potency and there is nothing except solvent liquid. Everybody knows none of the black magic, can vanish a matter from the universe. Yes! It could be converted into energy. However, why the scientist never imagines it?

    Does science can explain conscious or mind?
    Does science can prove light, heat, electricity, or any other energy? Please don’t tell me about their effects.

  15. @Jay Hilarious. So drinking diluted piss will cure kidney stones will it. Or if I’m dying of arsenic poisoning, you’d recommend a treatment based on an infinitely diluted solution of arsenic. Try telling that to the hundreds of thousands of sufferers of arsenic poisoning in West Bengal, Bangladesh, India and elsewhere…

    Scientists are not afraid of the new. There have been countless scientific revolutions, but these are built on the foundations of evidence, not hearsay and certainly don’t rely on bashing glass vials against a Bible to help explain observations.

  16. Time is always on the side of treatments. We used to say 80% of what goes wrong with the body will repair with time. That is why active treatments with little science ado can make a claim to cure… and if it doesn’t, well the treatment gets advanced or the person is no longer around to give a testament.

    I am not saying that chronic or acute illness does not require attention. I am saying eventually the body attempts to make corrections, and people often credit the wrong cure. As for Doctor Feel-Goods’ posting, I think it’s shameful in this age of health care reform to pray upon others who are suspicious of what they don’t fully understand.

    It’s difficult enough to tell people that joint replacement may not ensure they can fully bear weight on a leg, or that a pacemaker (IMD) may be the more drastic choice to treat their type of heart condition. I have heard so many people swear by the latest elixir and watch as their disease waxes and wanes. Everything has a price attached. If it isn’t fully explained… then buyer beware.

  17. In what way does homeopathy require more than a clinical trial to prove it?

    At the chemical, molecular level homeopathy cannot possibly work. At best it’s treating someone nice and giving them water droplets to make them feel better, patting them on the head and telling them it will all be alright, there, there.

    The whole premise on which homeopathy is based is ludicrous. Of course, we don’t know everything about atoms and molecules, but you really have to resort to woo and the supernatural to devise a mechanism for homeopathy. But, the bit about having to bash the glass vials against The Bible gets me every time. ROFL.

    Some references for you:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMGIbOGu8q0
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VIaV8swc-fov
    http://j.mp/d7jeN

  18. It is very important that the remedies used are clinically tested before they are used on the whole population.

  19. Mr/Ms Coast…that doesn’t really mean anything. Unless you’re simply saying that there are as many charlatans out there as there are ways to stir a Jaffa Cake and Ginger Nut herbal tea…

  20. There are just as many remedies as there are practioners, alternative remedies have their own take on the disease.

  21. @Chandkishore Glad you followed up your initial woo comment about homeopathy with something more sensible about any of these alternative “remedies” as being nothing but secondary to any primary care required in the face of H1N1.

  22. There are a lot of ayurvedic remedies which also should be considered.

    Whether it is homeopathy, yoga, or ayurvedic they are only second to the guidelines issued by CDC for h1n1 prevention. The CDC guideline must be followed.

    Hope the situation will not be as worse as it is predicted. But we must all be alert.

  23. Hi David!

    Yes, you are right about yoga.It cannot prevent h1n1 with guarantee, but can bolster the immune system to fight the disease.

    Also, why the authorities in USA not conducting clinical tests with homeopathy medicine? In India many people are using them as preventive medicine. The possibility should be explored. Thanks.

  24. H1N1 taking a deeper route into the lungs and the cells that facilitate oxygenation. Several new papers are out. Speaking of the deep lung damage of H1N1. Talking about the presence of antibodies and the use of Immuno-globulin as a drug to help those with the more severe form.

    It looks like H5N1, with the damaged tissues and hemoragic effects. No H1N1 hasn’t crossed that we know of with H5N1, but it is begining to look a little more like 1918-1919. Suggest to all to keep searching for the comments by health officials for some change-ups or drift of H1N1.

    David can you give us a heads up on a good place to look for lay-persons reports?

  25. Why do you say a “mere” flu. Viruses account for an incredible number of pathologies in all cellular species on the planet. Moreover, huge tracts of our DNA, carries with it the remnants of viral infections that took control of the genetic material of our ancient ancestors stretching back almost to the dawn of life on earth.

    Viruses are on the cusp of living and non-living. Essentially a bundle of self-replicating nucleic acid wrapped in protein molecules, they require a host cell to allow them to reproduce. They do not feed but exploit host cell nutrients in replication. And boy, can they move?

  26. Is it not a telling commentary for our times, that as we progress daily in our endeavors with science and technology, a mere flu can fell us?

  27. Anyone interested in the different veins of medicine? In America, the study of two schools virtually go to war to dominant and influence the degrees obtained by treating Docs. That of homeopathy, vs. allopathic training. Homeopathic Drs dominated until the germ theory became provable. In fact President Harding’s parents were homeopathic practitioners.

    Homeopaths came in varieties but relied on the notion that all body reactions were an allergic reaction. Tonics were made to desensitize the body to toxins. Arsenics were often used. Now that did not mean the homeopaths were not using and choosing treatments from a variety of proven remedies. Standard pain relievers, or surgery to intervene against cancer and infections were also sought. Still the homeopathic Dr was likely to sell a feel good tonic that was little use against appendicitis, or internal organ disease.

    As allopathic Drs were winning the war & creating the American Medical Model that we know today, homeopathy dropped into folklore realms. The licensing of Drs nearly put an end to homeopathy. It re-emerges each decade with a spin of current organics, and better understanding of immuno relationships to nutrients.

    While there are a dozen sites that will tell you how a ‘potion’ can generate cures, ask yourself what exactly is in the formula that provides or constitutes a medication. I like to teach that in smallest to larger amounts of many nutrients are vitamin, to hormone, to steroid. All substances alike in formation but in smallest element of vitamin to provide the body’s needs, hormones which is a stronger substance can regulate, and in steroid strength can override a body reaction.

    I am of course no fan of remedy scams. My great-grandmother could boil slippery elm bark into a fever relieving tea, I prefer aspirin that I can calculate a dosage on. Still being able to use a vitamin to hasten immuno-response to say colds or viruses has a place… if you know what it is and how it works.

  28. Yoga is perfectly suited to helping maintain overall health, but it is not going to prevent you catching flu. One possible benefit though (and I am quoting a certified yoga teacher on this) is that breathing exercises may help and staying generally fit will improve your chances of having a strong immune system to fight infection when you are confronted by it.

  29. A word on yoga- it is highly effective. But you have to do it the correct way. You should start learning from a certified teacher. As exercise could lead to injury if done the wrong way, yoga could cause internal and external injury if not done properly.

    A word on vit-d- Vitamin-d should be taken from sunlight only. You should find out which times are good and what protective gear to wear while exposing your body to sunlight.

    Thanks.

  30. By the way I am not advocating taking homeopathy medicine, just informing.

    Similarly, here are some more info. People can start doing Yoga (simple breathing exercises) to boost the body’s defense mechanisms. Having plenty of vit-D from sunlight to protect against flu is also advisable.

    What sort of preventive steps people would take is left to their decision.

  31. Swine flu has reached India too. The government as well as private hospitals here have geared up to face the situation.

    Homeopathic medicines are being sold, with an approval from the Indian homeopathy council, to prevent further outbreak. The medicines are taken for 3 days on empty stomach. People take the medicine and follow other preventive guidelines as advised by the CDC in US.

  32. Homoeopathy may prove as a substitute of antiviral or vaccination. Because there is no need to know about any kind of virology it is based on the totality of symptoms. When symptoms are changed medicines also change subsequently.

  33. Regardless of how a flu mutates, the H1N1 vaccine will provide some of the RNA chain recognitions for H1N1. It may not make you completely immune but you may be much less ill as your system reconginizes part of the code and goes into action earlier. Once the vaccine is proven to be effective and safe in humans, with the correct dosage, I won’t skip it to rely on other therapies.

    I still wonder if the H1N1 is hitting auto-immune disorders hard & because of the over reaction in such illness, it creates a complicated or fatal case of flu. The fact we have been saying the immune systems in pregnant women are suseptable may be that auto-protection factor.

    Tricky recognition, then going into an all out attack against H1N1. (As if the alarms didn’t go off, but someone smells smoke and yells ‘fire’ in the theater.) Where as those with lower or healthy immune systems can still rely on proper feed-back in the body to slowly achieve a peak and learn which antigens to fight with. Then that healthy fighting system settles back down to normalacy.

    Waiting for David’s take on diet.

  34. @Mohit That’s not necessarily true, having what you describe as a weak immune system is not a prerequisite for dying from a viral infection. Indeed, a lot of the people who die from pandemic forms of diseases are often the most healthy, not those with compromised immune systems.

  35. Caused by the H1N1 virus, Swine flu is a viral infection affecting the respiratory tract like any other flu virus. There is no need to panic. Every once in a while, pandemics do occur and only the the person with weak immunity succumbs, which may happen with any viral infection. If swine flu is really that deadly, all the doctors would have been victims by now! There are flu viruses which are of innumerable types besides the H1N1.

    Remember fevers and respiratory infections are in any case at their peak in monsoons and very few of them may be swine flu. Precautions to prevent being attacked by the virus would help in improving the body’s resistance.

  36. Here are some lines from different articles-

    The effectiveness of the flu vaccine is dependent upon the extent of the match between the virus strains used to prepare the vaccine and those viruses in actual circulation…. Research has shown that when there is a good match between the virus strains chosen for the vaccine and those in circulation, the vaccine prevents influenza illness in approximately 70%-90% -http://www.medicinenet.com/flu_vaccination/page3.htm

    The rapid evolution of the influenza virus is an example of Nature at her most opportunistic. Viruses evolve by the same means as humans, plus they use tricks such as stealing genetic code from other viruses.
    And it doesn’t stop there. Each time another person is infected, the new strain of the virus can grab more genes and mutate further. So if you came from Mexico and infected people in the United States who might have been packing around a different flu, the U.S. swine flu could be different than the Mexican swine flu.

    And that’s why there’s no cure for the flu.
    -http://www.livescience.com/health/090428-swine-flu-viral-evolution.html

    “Worldwide, most patients infected with the pandemic virus continue to experience typical influenza symptoms and fully recover within a week, even without any form of medical treatment. Healthy patients with uncomplicated illness need not be treated with antivirals.” -http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/notes/h1n1_use_antivirals_20090820/en/index.html

    All of these articles helps to make a conclusion that we are not safe the scientists are doing experiments up on us just like Guinea pig.

  37. I am curious about the two studies on PubMed from a few years ago. Could the simple swine flu treatment work and be safer than the vaccine.

    The beauty of it is that there are many foods that provide the same results as the supplement. So if supplementation is not affordable, a simple dietary change could help.

  38. @Swanand I corrected the various typos in your comment and also removed the statement about you not being a medical professional ;-) I’m still not sure I understand the logic of your comment though. Paracetamol and ibuprofen do have a role to play in treating viral diseases as they can usually lower inflammatory response and fever to some degree, but they don’t modulate the immune response directly as far as I know.

  39. Nice article. Also it would be better if it can put some light on use of paracetamol and ibuprofen tablets. Because as per my understanding the brutality of the virus depends on how weak a person’s immune system is. Even the antivirals are able to curb the growth of the virus by 37% and in some cases people are getting relieved by mere use of paracetamol.

  40. David Bradley,
    Further to my comment about Muslims and Jews re “pig problems”, the following is from today’s London Daily Telegraph, page 16

    FLYING RABBIS ON SWINE FLU PATROL
    Rabbis and Jewish mystics have flown over Israel chanting prayers and blowing ritual ram horns to stop the spread of swine flu in the country
    A charter plane carrying about 50 people, most of them bearded ultra-Orthodox men cloaked in black, circled the country on Monday hoping that their prayers would be heard.
    About 200 cases of swine flu have been confirmed by Israel’s health ministry and five people are known to have died

    I shall go and sacrifice a sheep with due ceremony. Better still and a more ancient rite, burn undesireables in wicker cages eg some of our politicians ??

  41. @AM Governments will not take notice, no matter what we spread. As to whether I care to differ, yes I do. The last thing we should be doing is doling out Tamiflu (oseltamivir doesn’t need the upper case O) on the basis of self diagnosis. The drug does not need to be given quickly but having a fever alone is not enough to diagnose H1N1 influenza, you should be showing other of its symptoms, such as severe diarrhoea.

  42. I had symptoms of flu for a few days, went to the doctor who said this, when I insisted on anti-virals, I was told that they couldn’t prescribe it won’t be effective and anyway it won’t be available at the pharmacies !!
    And this is in Toronto, Canada !

    It is sad to know that one basic thing is overlooked (unless I am missing something here) – that anti-viral medications are effective only when administered within the first 48-72 hours of infection. Else they are useless. There is no point in ‘testing’ for swine flu, medications should be given immediately on the onset of fever or other symptoms. The only way is to be prepared with a good stock fo Oseltamivir etc. and at the same time, go on with vaccinations.

    Anybody care to differ? If not, at least spread this – perhaps the government will take notice.

  43. @Ramachandran – Bullsh.

    “But according to Hindu Science it is a Chicken POX related disease.”

    “The bacteria of Swine flu is similar to Bacteria of rinder pest.”

    WTF?

  44. Dear Sirs,

    This day after referring good number of books and making all sort of analysis I found a way to approach the Swine Flu that is rocking the world!

    It appeared in Chennai in 1912, where quinine was sold and the German company made.

    But according to Hindu Science it is a Chicken POX related disease.

    The bacteria of Swine flu is similar to Bacteria of rinder pest.

    It will make the skin thick, and I made a through research in finding the chemistry of this swine Flu and if any company come forward I wish to share my views about Swine flu.

    My self, a M.A. M.Phil Graduate, basically a Leather Chemist, doing research in Vedas and NaNo technology and applied for PhD in AArhus University., Denmark.

  45. Point taken. Given the unknown nature of the virus, and it’s potential to kill, people should definitely take precautions, and accurate and helpful information should be provided. I do however think that given the fine line between scaremongering and providing accurate and helpful information when there are so many unknowns, can be hard – so presenting information in a friendly and light-hearted way, on what is clearly a serious topic. Providing the facts without any real perspective could just scare people. Good luck!

  46. Ah, okay…glad our definitions of man flu jibe.

    I’m afraid, however that I don’t think a lighthearted perspective on any serious disease is really warranted is it, especially when it kills? I realise that a “keep on smiling” attitude might be needed, but I don’t think the emergence of a novel virus that spreads within a few months across the globe and threatens to mutate into a far more virulent form is nothing more than cyberchondria. One of my elderly neighbours had a dose of H1N1 infection two months ago and is still suffering with recurrent chest infections, any one of which might lead to pneumonia and his demise. The concerns of friends worrying about their children who have suffered severe high temperatures, sore throats, and diarrhoea, are not to be dismissed as an oinking joke either. Yes, have a bit of fun but don’t dismiss the need to inform the public of a health threat in the name of laughter.

  47. David, that’s exactly what I meant by man flu! I.e. if the term ‘swine flu’ hadn’t been coined – any man who was exhibiting flu symptoms was previously described (by females at least) – as having man flu ….. now however, man flu (or just ‘the flu’ as us males know it) will be instantly diagnosed by anyone who is not a doctor as the dreaded swine flu! I would like to think the site in my comment at least provides a slightly more light-hearted view point, including the facts, and hopefully discussion based on these so called facts. Do you think otherwise? Any feedback is always appreciated. oink.

  48. I think that the vast majority of cases out there at the moment are caused by hyperchondria, or indeer cyberchondria! Just think, if there had been a media blackout from the word go – i.e. you’d never heard of swine flu … you probably would have heard of a couple of friends who have been i’ll with a dose of the man flu – but not with a virus that it apparently set to wipe out the human race!

    Oink and out, Filthy.

  49. @Ferrand Interesting point…I’d hope that religious leaders with a bio background could explain how centuries old dogma regarding pigs will not apply to an H1N1 vaccine.

  50. There could be a problem for devout Muslims – and Jews – over being vaccinated with something coming from a pig ?
    Further, with the Haj later in the year it will be almost impossible to screen out swine flu infected folk, and if an outbreak does occur, in the crowded conditions cross infection might be considerable ? Further some countries may wish to place their infected citizens in quarantine on their return ?

  51. Swine Flu has also come in India & its spreading. We have had 5 cases recently. The symptoms are so common that its very difficult to detect whether it is the normal flu or swine flu.

  52. I find it really hard to take the hype in all of the so called Swine Flu seriously. If even half the other causes of human misery got even one tenth of the media attention this has….. then again those causes don’t usually sell stocks or have dividends.
    Security at North American bio-research facilities has been getting lax the last few years in some part due to budgetary constraints and in others due to negligence. I would be more worried about something getting out of a lab built for level 3 work doing higher level contracts or research without the proper protocols in place. For instance the moving of the Plum Island research lab to Kansas.

    Good article with level reporting, keep up the great work.

  53. The problem is that no one listens including the media. Swine flu if it mutates to something equivalent to the Spanish flu of 1918/1919 (Spanish flu was a swine flu variant) has the same potential to kill humans on an unprecidented scale as it did 90 years ago. The problem is that both swine and avian are constantly mutating into something different. So by the time you have isolated and made a vaccine for the last one, it has changed again and circumvented the old guard and becomes useless. The problem is that this happens all the time and where drugs become irrelevant. The reason, it takes three months to develop an antidote and 6 months to mass produce and distribute it (a logistic nightmare in itself alone) and where on average therefore the vast majority have to wait 9 months for the cure. The problem is that even in slow coach travel times 1918, the Spanish flu which took between 20 and 100 million lives worldwide (there is no authoritive number but where it is estimated between the two), did its deadliest between week 14 and week 26, some 12 weeks at least before the masses would ever receive the drug cure presently. The 1918 killer flu had a very similar circumstance as today, a mild version before the deadly version arrived in the fall of 1918 with a vengeance. The only way that this deadly killer can be stopped therefore, if anyone is listening out there, is through a complete overhaul of modern farming and husbandry methods and to give considerable financial help to those who breed the livestock that we all eat. Basically as a single example, just stop them sleeping with the animals on cold nights in the tropics as this is how the flu virus passes from pig to chicken to man – eventually; and where the pig is the receptive incubator. Simply give them a heater and fuel, a much cheaper option that global suicide in both human and econmic terms as it will be. For the ‘Tropics’ are where some of the most eminent virologists and micribiologists in the field say is the place where the killer virus will emerge.The philosophy of not letting it happen in the first place. The drugs strategy is futile and it is only a matter of time before the killer strain that will kill literally 100s millions appears. The problem is that the vast profits of drug companies and the government’s ignorance to the real facts will be the nails in all our coffins. The statistics and potential speak for themselves,

    World Population 2 billion – 1920
    Range of deaths
    20mil/2billion = 1 in 100
    100mil/2billion = 5 in 100

    World Population now at 6.8 billion now equates to,
    1 in 100 – 70 million min. today
    5 in 100 – 340 million max. today
    But, these figures could well be higher, as rapid world transit now makes for faster and wider transmission than in 1918.
    I therefore say lets start now as I have been saying for the past three years and defeat this mass killer like no other by field work and not the futile drugs strategy that will do very little indeed to save lives. For presently we are all fooling ourselves.

    If we put only £50 billion into this field work globally ( a small price for the human nightmare and financial melt-down that a global equivalent to Spanish flu would bring),we could eradicate the situation but where this £50 billion will no doubt end up alternatively in the pockets of the large pharmaceutical companies with little effect whatsoever. Get real everyone before it is basically too late and I am not joking – force governments to change their strategies from something that is impotent presently to something that will eradicate the problem at source. Common sense really but where currently no one seems to have any.

    Worryingly also is the fact that as examples of other problems on the horizon is that the United States makes only 20 percent of its flu vaccines it uses and my country Britain makes zero percent of its flu vaccines, as all its flu vaccines are produced abroad. When a killer pandemic happens it will be hard for the producing countries to release any before their own people are serviced. Little known but true (Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota – 16.07.09).

    I have been stopped from putting these comments and facts out by the media before. Let’s hope that minds are fully opened now and that the real solution can be heard and not just the bottom-line for drug companies!

    Dr David Hill

  54. Barcelona, 17th July 2009.

    While it is difficult, if not impossible to generalise from individual cases, a worrying development was reported today in Spain’s El País newspaper. The case concerns a 33-year-old Nigerian woman without previous health problems who died very quickly from Swine Flu after admission to hospital. The immediate cause of death was pneumonia in both lungs, leading to respiratory failiure. Spain’s Health Minister, Trinidad Jímenez, has referred the case to the WHO. For those who can read Spanish, I attach the news item and link below:

    Source: El País newspaper (Spain)
    http://www.elpais.com/articulo/sociedad/Sanidad/teme/gripe/cause/8000/muertes/invierno/elpepusoc/20090717elpepusoc_3/Tes

  55. There is more and more cases being recorded in NZ. Quarantine is a joke however, as a friend of mine inbound from Fiji was simply put aside in a special “containment area” (domicile), but the neighbours were sent out to buy the “quarantined tourists” booze from the local bottle shop.

    No wonder it is spreading.

    — Robert

  56. Should you read the story of the H1N1 tami-flu resistant case in Hong Kong, know it came out of San. Fran. The US will need to step up monitoring for changes in H1N1. Some countries now in crisis and over-whelmed. Two new studies out per Ferret testing.

    H1N1 has a little trick not as sophisticated as out-right mutation. Spitting out RNA changes in the human host, which gives rise to different onset symptoms and varied organ systems being effected by the virus.

    The actual war that A-H1N1 is fighting today, may be squeezing out other circulating flues. What does that mean to humans… we are the accepted casualities in the virus war.

  57. It’s hard to know whether or not to be worried about swine flu when the media sort of dies down on it.

  58. The first case of Tamiflu resistant H1N1 in Denmark was not alone. Today Japan confirms a case with the new viral changes. Some officials say a certain percentage of resistance is to be expected, others wondering what that means for the public. Just how many more cases of resistant Novel-A are circulating may take some formula speculation and some time. Unfortunately real stats will begin to be acquired largely from reported fatalities & hospitalized patients. This because containment attempts are over and many countries will cease testing unless the patient requires treatment.

  59. Should you want to hold me accountable to last story….

    Are you worrying too much about H1N1 flu? SciScoop Science News

    Doom, Gloom, and Scaremongering SciScoop Science News

  60. Just as the panic, or the not panic winds down, there occured something rotten in Denmark. A case of H1N1 flu that resisted Tamiflu. Just one case, Like Russia has only a dozen positives for H1N1.

    We are just 70 days from the initial out-break and A-H1N1 has decided to talk in a new language. It is a related language, but the virus has decided to change up-its game, or rather show the world it can!

    In addition if you have been following the cases in the hospitals late positives are coming back from deadly cases. It’s something no one will speculate on just yet, but may indicate that A-H1N1 is getting better at hiding in the human body, faster in the onset and smarter about resisting treatments. Over the next few days watch to see if the stories begin to pick up.

    Patient privacy reg.s and the reliance on pre-existing medical conditions may not remain as the story focus. Some analytics are going to be required by journalists. Meaning to cover the pandemic, reporters will have to start using their heads if officials are not willing to move out of their comfort zones and start to risk some speculation. The numbers feeding in from countries around the world have been low and false dependent on the testing numbers. The deaths are being released as slowly and well spaced as possible.

    Just as H1N1 decides to speak, the big Mecca trek is taking place. Lots and lots of people moving together toward the shrines.

    In some countries the pressure has been huge on the Health Ministers/officials. Some will quit or be asked to step aside. Innoculations are being given in some countries for seasonal flues, and now if the resistance cases begin to increase an additional anti-viral will be added to treat patients. Infection continues in North America with summer fatalities. All of it has some implications that H1N1 could start to mutate.

    Vaccine production is started, the regime of inoculations and the availability is… hazey. The numbers fuzzy. Who gets it first not determined.

    I would like to send regards and wishes to the First Nation People in Canada, to the families in NY and of course the world. Know you have been coping under some long hours in the health care fields.

    Would imagine the posts may pick up over the next weeks.

  61. Swine flu has now reached the shores of South Africa as well. We kept it under control though. Well done to all those involved

  62. I the only one who has found this site ?
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  63. In 1997 Dr. Margaret Chan (Director-General of the World Health Organization) and Professor Kennedy Shortridge stopped an avian pandemic happening. Prof. Shortridge’s solution was a practical hands-on solution and one not based upon a drug cure, for they knew that this would never happen in time. Due to his and Dr. Chan’s swift actions, millions if not hundreds of millions, were most probably saved from a highly contagious global killer pandemic.

    More over on SciScoop.com in a forthcoming post – July 2, 2009

  64. Marvin, you’re so obviously not a genetic specialist. The genetic control institute you mention does not exist, as far as I can tell, and sexual transmission of porcine DNA to humans leading to the emergence of so-called swine flu did not occur. Moreover, red blood cells have no DNA. If you could provide references I might reconsider up-moderating your comment.

  65. They officially declared swine flu as a pandemic today when the World Health Organization raised the threat level to 6. I haven’t heard much in the news lately about swine flu but i’m sure this will stir it up again. I have a blog post concerning some basic ways to protect yourself from the flu.

    http://www.ruaware.net/swine-flu-pandemic

  66. So, basically Hakan…eat lots of fruit and veg, some fish, get plenty of exercise, avoid smoking and alcohol, and keep your brain active. And, that’s the way to avoid catching swine flu, is it? Hmmm. Those things are all worth doing, as they certainly do offer health benefits, but none of that will prevent infection due to full-on exposure to an influenza virus. You might fight it off better, of course.

  67. ENHANCING IMMUNE SYSTEM
    I have wanted to share the following information with you.
    You know that We have been facing with the threat of “Swine Flu”.
    If you want to not to be infected or affected from “Swine Flu”
    You should strengthen your immune system by consuming vegetables, fruits and vitamins (You
    should get vitamins from vegetables and fruits).
    These foods are very helpful in strengthening immune system.
    Spinach, carrot, leek, green onion, onion, bean, tomato, soybean, lettuce, radish, egg, cheese,
    yogurt, honey, green pepper, rocket salad, broccoli, all fruits (especially apple, banana, strawberry,
    cherry, melon, watermelon), parsley, boiled potato, hazelnut, walnut, raisin, dried fig, hazelnut oil,
    fish.
    You should consume at least 1 Kg Spinach, 0,5 Kg leek, 0,5 kg carrot, 100 gr (hazelnut or walnut),
    0,25 kg bean, 0,5 kg yogurt each week.
    You should consume 0,5 kg strawberry or cherry each week.
    You should consume 0,5 kg melon or watermelon in the summer each week.
    You should consume at least 0,5 kg fish each week.
    You should prefer hazelnut oil. consume hazelnut oil with foods and salads.
    You should consume 200-250 gr tomato each day.
    You should drink at least one glass of milk each day.
    I consume 2kg spinach, 1 kg leek, 1 kg carrot and 0,75 kg fish and 100 gr hazelnut and walnut, 0,5
    kg strawberry and cherry each week.
    I consume 200-300 gr tomato each day
    I consume 1 glass of milk each day
    I sometimes walk 30-40 kilometers on weekends
    you should walk at least 10-15 kilometers each week
    Try to consume a little red meat,
    refrain from consuming fried foods like hamburger and fried potato and meat.
    Two things improves or enhance the functioning of brain: nutrition and learning
    There is a relation between nutrition and intelligence
    There is relation between nutrition, learning
    If you consume much vegetable based foods, you learn very fastly
    vegetable based nutrition improves capacity of memory in the brain
    fast reading improves functioning of brain, fast reading improves memory in the brain
    fast reading tire brain very less
    B vitamins decrease stress
    consuming vegetables and fruits prevent tiredness
    you shoud never smoke. Smoking is very harmful for health.
    you should not consume alcohol.
    Smoking and alcohol weaken immune system
    if you consume too much fried foods, you will feel too much tiredness in your brain
    If you consume too much vegetative foods and fruits, you will feel yourself very energetic, happy,
    strong
    Mind control prevents smoking and consuming alcohol
    Hakan

  68. Wisconsin, which has more confirmed cases of swine flu than any other state, now has its first death from the novel H1N1 influenza.

    For the WI. Citizen, I have taken some pastes from the recent WI flu numbers. Your state did an excellent job of grabbing numbers and testing cases. Hope to see some of that specific info. later. While still obligated to send to the CDC for results the turn around time was long for all of us. Man I bet they were jammed! Our testing at state levels were certainly overwhelmed, and there was some lead time to get ready for that. Unfortunately there are some increasing cases of false negatives out of the kits. Remember a late circulating flu, whether H1N1 or just junkie H3N2 weak stuff got the 7 to 8 day timing because no one knew exact shed time, of the novel. Kids were shedding novel-virus sometimes 10 days past onset. Everyone was trying to limit interaction of person to person, and multiple contract cases. Below are some tracts from a WI. article. This on the date of first death in WI from flu.

    “What is unusual this year is that influenza continues to be widely circulating in Wisconsin and many, many other states this late in the year.”

    The state now has 2,071 confirmed and three probable cases of swine flu – a large number considering that the U.S. total on Wednesday stood at 11,054.

    “It’s mild, but we still don’t know what it is going to do in all of the different populations,” such as the elderly and people with HIV, he said.

  69. Kevin, I didn’t notice any paranoia here, to be honest, do you think actual paranoia somehow blocked transmission of the virus? Certainly, timely and sensible precautions at borders as well as informed response to suspected cases has so far prevented the spread of the disease, but I don’t think that’s paranoia. However, WHO data shows that cases in the US are appearing at a rate of 500 per day. That’s certainly not quite the high rate of infection originally feared. Who knows what will occur next though?

  70. I think that the paranoia that existed is pivotal to preventing wide-scale infection. It is impossible to know what would have happened if we weren’t scared… the fact that so many of us and our schools took extra precautions could have played a major role in limiting its impact.

  71. Pre-Clinical trial performed well before novel influenza A outbreak. Interesting to know that we may have viable vaccines prior to pandemic influenza outbreaks. Could this be what set Adrian Gibbs off?

    Preclinical Study Demonstrating That A Virus-like Particle Vaccine Provided Protection Against Highly Pathogenic H1N1 And H5N1 Influenza Strains

    http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/146006.php

  72. Watching numbers go up in the states. Not what I expected at the end of the season. Australia and N.Z and other UK numbers climb, yet China and India not so much… could it be these countries are under reporting, or just not testing. Russia states since flu so mild they will no longer test. I am not seeing the course of the disease in phys. findings or labs reported on the mortality cases. No further mention of the 40 suspected cases in Mongolia. Gosh is anyone reporting on the particulars? NY story links mortality to increase in Asthma pre-existing conditions. Asthma is auto-immune disorder. So how did those immune systems respond? Why not other respiratory diseases… COPD etc. If anyone see’s post related please share.

  73. Wisconsin Citizen –

    We can plan, and plan, and plan. Until something like this pops, and we put the plan into action, do we really know how it works. Believe me, changes are going to be made, but until then we have to determine just exactly what it is we are dealing with. Morbidity and mortality figures are factors which direct the priorities of our actions. Take a look at the pandemic plan study that I posted a link to in a previous post. There are established steps that must be followed in every plan.

    I too, am dismayed at the lag time to analyze samples, and the isolation of patients with probable cases of Influenza. Hopefully, this places emphasis upon and encouages the development of streamlined analysis procedures. Cause and Effect.

  74. I always wondered how the pandemic plan was originated, how the numbers triggered next steps, and at what pivotal times the gears of government begin to grind. This article (study) explains mitigation techniques based upon statistical inference.

    Effective, Robust Design of Community Mitigation for Pandemic Influenza: A Systematic Examination of Proposed US Guidance.
    Link as follows…

    http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0002606

  75. if this were so bad why is the “confinment” of the infected 7 days yet the turnaround for the cdc test is 8 days. it does not sound like the cdc takes it that seriously plus they also did not do testing over the holiday weekend. Doesn’t sound like the cdc is concerned

  76. Yeah… Darryl, see the problem with that is that Ebola, doesn’t spread as far. Ebola hits a small concise circle of contacts, its goes strong to weak as its RNA spins down to junk and can’t be passed if isolated properly. Rightly terrifies people though.

    Were you around when we didn’t know how HIV was passed? Darryl by your comment I can almost peg your age, and the professions your not in. My kids say the same thing… Until they get ready to hop on a plane to India or another country… then they drop by the house full of new questions. (They find me at the kitchen counter with my face mask on.) Just kidding.

    To my knowledge no one is in a panic. This is nothing like the HIV Era. Put sex and disease together and Americans go ballistic! And I agree we do not spend enough money on HIV prevention. 3-5 years ago big corps. began to pandemic train their Management & officers. These are the global corps. They view pandemics in the future as a reality, and indeed some are invested in the health related arena’s. The money we have put down on training and vaccine production is a fraction compared to the cost of HIV spending through today. A better comparison might be influenza to the mega bacterial outbreaks.

    Now HIV is known and can be avoided & treated with practice standards. Not so much with Influenza. By the way those stats are crap. But I get it, since this is a mild rarely lethal strain not to worry… today. Question for you: if HIV could be transmitted by airborne droplets and contact with same surfaces within say 24 hours would you be worried? If HIV traveled the globe within 30 days worried then? Or would we be saying gosh you can still live a long life if you’re treated with meds. See what I mean. The assessment of this virus is not a panic it’s good practice standards. By the way Ebola has been in the states and was contained like in hours. Public may not realize that.

  77. Swine flu panic seems rather misplaced. dont want to tell everyone to ignore swine flu so it will go away, but the panic that has come of it, and for the statistics is showing, i think we are over reacting. over 13000 cases IN THE WHOLE WORLD, with only about 90 deaths. thats a really low mortality rate. I mean come on. HIV has, on average, a 100% mortality rate, affects millions worldwide, is passed onto chldren, yet it recieves hardly any publicity, unless some sort of miracle occurs, and governments never spend as much on it in 5 years os they do in 5 months of hearing of some flu that doesn’t seem to be doing much any way. If it was an outbreak of Ebola Zaire, then i would be panicing

  78. Silas, Silas,

    We’re with you on this, baby not against you. David and Mike get flack about being too on top of Viral development often. This is one of the only on-going science oriented blog sites. Glad to have you here. MikeLo is practically screaming to find the (hostess with the mostess) most matched geno-types and RNA sequences. David’s stuff gets picked up by other sites and reused since he is published. So he has to live with looking back in hind vision.

    I agree with the pressure of Industry telling nations and markets to print factual info. out there. Otherwise people get over-reactive. That being said no one, not even WHO and CDC is maintaining that the verified and reported numbers are the real value numbers of the flu cases of H1N1. WHO actually uses formula’s to get around under-reported values. WHO is actually thinking at least 100-thousand in USA alone, and that was last week. Currently without the experience of watching seed virus action WHO has not even commited to a ratio on that formula.
    You can bet the USDA & Vet Science are scambling it’s people and connections. A portion of those swine up in canada are being preserved and autopsied, as well as samplings in Mexico. Thailand etc. As well as people who died from this. Blood work and studies looking for antigen reactions and basic markers, Lungs are being viewed, slides being shipped, language being weighed very carefully. Virus to Virus comparisons. We all get that here.

    I listened into the Phone conference VIA CDC on Friday. Not exactly reassuring. The press was all over those guys. Point of origin was asked in about 30 different ways. In 1918 you are right the out-break showed same pattern of spreading. The press under reported it. The War was used as the reason to slip gear on that. The press will not make that mistake again. But there is more to a virus than it’s spread pattern.

    Have to look at the RNA sequence and the on-going changes in this present strain. No one has enough data. Speculation can be a dangerous thing. If we are in the first novel leap of wide spread transmission of H1N1 it might take years to get really lethal, or it might not happen at all. RNA makes mistakes, it scratches it self out, sometimes just starting over again. Virus RNA is bit unstable to say the least. This Virus has sat safely in the gut of Birds and pigs without making a known outbreak of active disease in the host. Some pathogens cross the gut, both directions.

    Having said that, most are looking at this, saying here we go. H5N1 is now part of a novel strain. H1N1 has decided it wants to be on the move, again. The last time this moved it got smarter fast. H1N1 is noted for hitting stronger immune systems in it’s evolution. Not a reassuring value. Keep talking on the site. You brought some valid points up.

    Egypt culling hogs… that country also has outbreaks of H5N1, Turkey has too. So their reaction may have been somewhat sensible. Attempting to put up a barrier for H5N1 jumps and mutations in another host… as it pertains to their country. They did it quickly. And most said that action would not stop this. Vaccine will stop this. I am thinking of your child, Silas and my young adult children raising children. When it comes to who is the more forthcoming in the info. game, I am relying on the press, and the WHO. At least we can all agree there has been a paradyme shift. You can’t put a hold on info today as in the past.

  79. Silas, I’m well aware that the situation is changing all the time. You may wish to read the follow-up posts that discuss the very point regarding a second wave of influenza. However, at the time of the 1918-19 Spanish flu very little was known about the causative pathogen. We now understand better the way in which viruses can evolve and adapt to hosts and so re-emerge in second waves.

  80. David,

    I guess I should be included in “people like you”, as I don’t like being left out.

  81. Since this novel H1N1 is not evident in swine at the point of origin, the official scientific report makes the following assumption, which is pretty implicating. Now, which way do we look?…

    Its low genetic diversity suggests the introduction into humans was a single event or multiple events of similar viruses.

  82. Latest and greatest information is pay per view. This is the only free part.

    Antigenic and Genetic Characteristics of Swine-Origin 2009 A(H1N1) Influenza Viruses Circulating in Humans.
    Submitted on May 12, 2009
    Accepted on May 22, 2009

    Since its identification in April 2009 an A(H1N1) virus containing a unique combination of gene segments from both North American and Eurasian swine lineages has continued to circulate in humans. The lack of similarity between the 2009 A(H1N1) virus and its nearest relatives indicates that its gene segments have been circulating undetected for an extended period. Its low genetic diversity suggests the introduction into humans was a single event or multiple events of similar viruses. Molecular markers predictive of adaptation to humans are not currently present in 2009 A(H1N1) viruses, suggesting previously unrecognized molecular determinants could be responsible for the transmission among humans. Antigenically the viruses are homogeneous and similar to North American swine A(H1N1) viruses but distinct from seasonal human A(H1N1).
    Link as follows…

    http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/1176225

  83. Because of the ensuing “panic” from deaths in Mexico…the press was TOLD NOT TO MAKE THE FLU SO INTERESTING…so the “hunch” that the ‘media hype’ would die down was actually TOLD to die down.

    Right after there were reports of killing pigs in Egypt and how much it was hurting the hog industry it was a concensus on the part of the United States and President Barak Obama…that they had to play down this affair because of the chaos and loss of money.

    Then ‘majically, or miraculously, the 171 deaths being recorded in Mexico were really only 26!! Something like turning back the odometer in a car. The reason for this sudden change in mortality statistics as you also stated was because “they were not definitively the swine flu”….which the Mexican president so loudly decleared “We don’t have the sophisticated equipment to determine if it was swine flu”. thus being able to say OK guys this is all media hype not so many people died. Come on Mexico was already suffering so much economic loss, they had to think of the tourist industry and how much money was being lost.

    There were other reports after the U.S, and Canada went to Mexico to investigate the ‘so many deaths in Mexico’ that people in Mexico were not receiving treatment even one man ordered to get out of the amublance because fear from the EMT’s and health providers of contracting the flu themselves. I don’t believe that it is a different strain in Mexico now, just a change in care of the people infected which is currently still over 2, 000 now.

    Since your article there have been 10 deaths in the United States and a few in other countries.

    Right now the WHO organization has not changed it’s stance on whether this is a pandemic. It spreads very easily from animal to person-person transmission which makes it potentially very lethal and the ‘WHO is watching very closely the southern hemisphere as it goes into it’s flu seasom to see what this novel virus will do with the seasonal influenza virus. They say they expect more severe cases and more mortality rates and far from “dying down” in keeps on growing even out of the seasonal influenza period. Which has big implications according to the CDC and WHO.

    The Spanish influenza in 1918-19 started out in the spring as only a ‘mild’ influenza and then came back with a vengeance in the winter, are you aware of that? Maybe not ENOUGH media hype at that time?

    The WHO and CDC learned lessons through the years and stand more ready to handle a pandemic than any other time, since 2005 they put together a scale of 1 to 6 of what would be considered pandemic proportions. By all rights a level 6 is what this influenza is. The leading Margaret Chan has been pressured to ‘redefine’ the terms.Because of the loss of money that a level 6 would cause. But she has not played the severity.

    So your article particularly bothered me because your information proved wrong.

    THis is something I am taking very seriously because I live in mainly “a poverty zone’ and my child has severe respiratory problems. It seems the wolrd doesn’t consider deaths of this kind as of much importance.

    The “people like you” comment I made was the ones that always want to play things on the “down” side just in case they are wrong. I”m sick of hearing this is just media hype. Tell that to my son. or the potentially dead ones in the coming days.

  84. By the way, who are these “people like me”? My original comment was posted with the intention of answering some of the questions raised at the height of the media hype it was most certainly not done to make me look “intelligent somehow”…why would I do that?

  85. Well, Silas…you don’t have to read my column..but I think I was right. The original strain from Mexico probably has died out, the strain that’s affecting people currently seems to be different, moreover, the media hype has more than died down…

  86. At least the press are asking more intelligent questions, but still not getting astounding revelations from the CDC. This is now old news but see if you can find faulty reasoning within.

    Press Briefing Transcripts
    Update on the Novel Influenza A H1N1 Virus and New Findings Published Today
    May 22, 2009, 1 p.m. ET

    http://www.cdc.gov/media/transcripts/2009/t090522.htm

  87. You said: “My hunch is that this H1N1 strain of swine flu will die out and the media hype with it over the next two to three weeks.”

    Well, Mr. Bradley, it’s been three weeks. Now there’s 5000 cases in US, 10 deaths. We’re in a pandemic. So where does that put your hunch? I know there’s such a thing as media hype. However, in my experience, people like you play the “media hype” card because you think it makes you look more intelligent somehow.

    Well I have a son who has major resperitoryproblems who would probably die if he gets the flu. With hunches like yours, why should I even read your column?

    Silas Kurzawa May 23, 09

    What’s next?

  88. A major stumbling block which mystifies and baffles the scientific community, seems to be lack of antibody recognition to novel H1N1. Further blood tests are being performed, but the information has not been forthcoming.

  89. Kathh- Speculation on my part. Avian links are just too big a part of the overall picture to overlook. A link that I am trying to establish is that the poor kid in La Gloria might have brought home a sick bird for dinner, as frequently happens in poorer economies. Since no swine in the area have tested positive, a massive feedlot operation induces all types of “critters” to visit and mix in the proper environment. There is almost conclusive proof that the “Eurasian – like” swine mix in novel H1N1 didn’t originate there. Generations of evolution to get where it is now, i’m sure you get my drift. Imported or no? Thats what we have to conclude before we begin to look elsewhere. When someone points a finger, I generally look at the person holding it rather than the direction it’s headed.

  90. OK I see point about H2N2… But the vectors… Isn’t anyone speculating where to look or is testing and back tracking the RNA? I know your looking… Keep talking to us. Thanks Reading all your links. Katie hope your paper turned out with good grade!

  91. Some evidence to support the 11 year theory.

    Origin of the pandemic 1957 H2 influenza A virus and the persistence of its possible progenitors in the avian reservoir.

    H2N2 influenza A viruses caused the Asian pandemic of 1957 and then disappeared from the human population 10 years later. To assess the potential for similar outbreaks in the future, we determined the antigenicity of H2 hemagglutinins (HAs) from representative human and avian H2 viruses and then analyzed the nucleotide and amino acid sequences to determine their evolutionary characteristics in different hosts. The results of longitudinal virus surveillance studies were also examined to estimate the prevalence of avian H2 isolates among samples collected from wild ducks and domestic poultry. Reactivity patterns obtained with a large panel of monoclonal antibodies indicated antigenic drift in the HA of human H2 influenza viruses, beginning in 1962. Amino acid changes were clustered in two regions of HA1 that correspond to antigenic sites A and D of the H3 HA. By contrast, the antigenic profiles of the majority of avian H2 HAs were remarkably conserved through 1991, resembling the prototype Japan 57 (H2N2) strain. Amino acid changes were distributed throughout HA1, indicating that antibodies do not play a major role in the selection of avian H2 viruses. Phylogenetic analysis revealed two geographic site-specific lineages of avian H2 HAs: North American and Eurasian. Evidence is presented to support interregion transmission of gull H2 viruses. The human H2 HAs that circulated in 1957-1968 form a separate phylogenetic lineage, most closely related to the Eurasian avian H2 HAs. There was an increased prevalence of H2 influenza viruses among wild ducks in ***1988 in North America***, preceding the appearance of H2N2 viruses in domestic fowl. As the prevalence of avian H2N2 influenza viruses increased on turkey farms and in live bird markets in New York City and elsewhere, greater numbers of these viruses have come into direct contact with susceptible humans. We conclude that antigenically conserved counterparts of the human Asian pandemic strain of 1957 continue to circulate in the avian reservoir and are coming into closer proximity to susceptible human populations.
    Link as follows…

    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7684877

  92. Mikelo,
    So let me reword one of your concerns, you tell me if this is what you mean. You speak science pure, I speak medical-macro.

    The focus is that this new novel-A is the evolution of H5N1. Rather than awkward attempts of H5N1 to go bird to man, it is going bird-pig-man to increase transmission? Since Swine is not testing positive, it is the Avian delivering the novel-A? But isn’t that the way of all A-flues. To use the middle host in this case swine then jump to the next in the line of species most similar. The A-novel flue needs to be active in the middle host somewhere, right? Or is it simply human H1N1 strain making jump into the pig population. Still Where did we get it? What was the real long distance runner to take it to the human? Birds do not link to (Yet Discovered) speedy transmission to humans, and humans to take it long term spread to more humans? Tell me about the Euro-swine strains? Tell me what your thinking? Are you looking for the most likely sign of a big fall out-break in the North-hemi?

  93. La Gloria México (supposed patient zero), is not your average turista destination. Eurasian- like swine Influenza variants came from where?

  94. A small portion of a very comprehensive document, but not conclusive.

    An interesting question is how does Europe get to figure in this mixing? “The genetic lineages of Asia and Europe mix quite a bit,” said Donis, adding that European pigs need not come to North America; it is sufficient if infected people do. ***This again suggests that Mexico is not the origin of the strain***. “The amazing thing,” said Donis, “is the haemagglutinins we are seeing in this strain are a lonely branch that has been evolving somewhere and we don’t know about it.”
    At present, 27 of the 31 Mexican states and the Federal District have now reported confirmed cases. Though the longer incubation period (of three to seven days), the clinical symptoms and the age distribution of cases (predominantly less than 18 years of age unlike seasonal flu) seem to be similar to those in the U.S. and Canada, the naive case fatality rate (CFR) seems to differ significantly. While it is slightly over 0.1 per cent in the U.S. and 0.3 per cent in Canada, it is much higher in Mexico. According to the WHO, outside Mexico, the new virus has caused very mild illness in otherwise healthy people, and nearly all cases of illness, and all the deaths, have been detected in people with underlying chronic conditions.
    Why the outbreak in Mexico is somewhat different is not fully understood yet. Frank Plummer, the scientific director general of the National Microbiology Laboratory of the PHAC, which has been assisting the InDRE with the genetic analyses of Mexican samples and did the first full genetic sequencing of A(H1N1) S-OIV, has ***ruled out this to be the result of mutation***. Though late reporting of the disease and delayed treatment could be responsible, the genetic make-up of the Mexican population could also play a role, according to him.
    Link as follows…

    http://www.hinduonnet.com/fline/stories/20090605261103100.htm

  95. Kathh – Actually I am still going to follow the H2N2 angle as there seems to be un -relenquished information to be found. It disturbes me that substantial laboratory testing has turned up unidentified Influenza A viruses (unsubtyped) that are being “assumed” to be novel H1N1.

  96. An observation. Since novel H1N1 is unconfirmed in Méxican or North American swine, with the possible exception of a herd in Alberta Canada that contracted the virus from interpersonal contact with a farmer that had returned from México and had laboratory tested positive with Influenza, it should be safe to conclude that humans provide a means for transmissibility. Now should we make the statement that evidence does not support an avian link as a means of transmission, why would we not isolate? Speculation is that answer may lie within established and acceptable mortality rates. However, should we make the statement that an additional avian link is considered as a means of transmission, why would containment be of lessor importance? Quite simply, it would be impossible to attempt.

    Several years back, I resolutely followed the HPAI (H5N1) evolution and the sentinal means by which it could be first detected in North America. It was in Alaska where the most focus was placed due to the fact that North American migratory flyways would overlap the Eurasian migratory flyways, this being called connectivity. This was a best guess location for introduction of HPAI into North America, since European and American flyways don’t coincide at the proper time to be of concern. Now, the important keyword here is Eurasian. What we have seen now that makes the novel Influenza A 2009 different from the seasonal flu is replacement of two of the North American Swine like genomes being replaced with Eurasian like. Again, the keyword here is Eurasian. Coincidence is a hypothesis to be tested.

  97. May 11, 2009
    A novel influenza A (H1N1) virus has spread rapidly across the globe. Judging its pandemic potential is difficult with limited data, but nevertheless essential to inform appropriate health responses. By analyzing the outbreak in Mexico, early data on international spread, and viral genetic diversity, we make an early assessment of transmissibility and severity. Our estimates suggest that 23,000 (range 6,000-32,000) individuals had been infected in Mexico by late April, giving an estimated case fatality ratio (CFR) of 0.4% (range 0.3% to 1.5%) based on confirmed and suspect deaths reported to that time. In a community outbreak in the small community of La Gloria, Veracruz no deaths were attributed to infection, giving an upper 95% bound on CFR of 0.6%. Thus while substantial uncertainty remains, clinical severity appears less than that seen in 1918 but comparable with that seen in 1957. Clinical attack rates in children in La Gloria were twice that in adults (<15 years-of-age: 61%, 15: 29%). Three different epidemiological analyses gave R0 estimates in the range 1.4-1.6, while a genetic analysis gave a central estimate of 1.2. This range of values is, consistent with 14 to 73 generations of human-to-human transmission having occurred in Mexico to late April. Transmissibility is therefore substantially higher than seasonal flu, and comparable with lower estimates of R0 obtained from previous influenza pandemics.

  98. Tried it without the link…

    Sciencemag.org – May 11, 2009
    A novel influenza A (H1N1) virus has spread rapidly across the globe. Judging its pandemic potential is difficult with limited data, but nevertheless essential to inform appropriate health responses. By analyzing the outbreak in Mexico, early data on international spread, and viral genetic diversity, we make an early assessment of transmissibility and severity. Our estimates suggest that 23,000 (range 6,000-32,000) individuals had been infected in Mexico by late April, giving an estimated case fatality ratio (CFR) of 0.4% (range 0.3% to 1.5%) based on confirmed and suspect deaths reported to that time. In a community outbreak in the small community of La Gloria, Veracruz no deaths were attributed to infection, giving an upper 95% bound on CFR of 0.6%. Thus while substantial uncertainty remains, ***clinical severity appears less than that seen in 1918 but comparable with that seen in 1957***. Clinical attack rates in children in La Gloria were twice that in adults (<15 years-of-age: 61%, 15: 29%). Three different epidemiological analyses gave R0 estimates in the range 1.4-1.6, while a genetic analysis gave a central estimate of 1.2. This range of values is, consistent with 14 to 73 generations of human-to-human transmission having occurred in Mexico to late April. Transmissibility is therefore substantially higher than seasonal flu, and comparable with lower estimates of R0 obtained from previous influenza pandemics.

  99. Bear with me, and keep track of the print in ***asterisk***.

    CIDRAP – May 21, 2009
    Swine influenza (illness in pigs) is caused by influenza A viruses. Influenza A viruses of swine origin can cause influenza in humans. General information about influenza A viruses is presented in the bullet points below.
    •Descriptive information
    o Influenza A viruses are negative-sense single-stranded RNA viruses and belong to the family Orthomyxoviridae and the genus Influenzavirus A.
    o Enveloped virions are 80 to 120 nm in diameter, are 200 to 300 nm long, and may be filamentous. They consist of spike-shaped surface proteins, a partially host-derived lipid-rich envelope, and matrix (M) proteins surrounding a helical segmented nucleocapsid (6 to 8 segments).
    o The virus envelope glycoproteins (hemagglutinin [HA] and neuraminidase [NA]) are distributed evenly over the virion surface, forming characteristic spike-shaped structures; antigenic variations in these proteins form the basis of the classification system for influenza A virus subtypes.
    •Influenza A virus subtypes
    o There are 16 different HA antigens (H1 to H16) and nine different NA antigens (N1 to N9) for influenza A.
    o Human disease historically has been caused by three subtypes of HA (H1, H2, and H3) and two subtypes of NA (N1 and N2). More recently, human disease has been recognized to be caused by additional HA subtypes, including H5, H7, and H9 (all from avian origin).

    *** All of these subtypes have been found in birds, and birds are the primordial reservoir for influenza A viruses.***

    o Several subtypes have been found in pigs (see section below for more information).

    http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/swineflu/biofacts/swinefluoverview.html

  100. Wowza, checking airways… I’m impressed. I had friend that lived in Keys with her family. She talked about the Red dust blowing in from Africa.
    You going to use the H5N1 as your marker and indication? Be sure to let us know what you discover. That’s some complex tracing over a generation. Anyone in the Mexico Zero Zone talk about unusual large flocks landing to water that didn’t before? Say up to 15 years ago. Let us know what you discover. And the herd starters in Zero Zone, where did those come from? So much they don’t tell us eehh?

  101. Had read some past posts a while back, and I believe it was kathh that noted Florida did not seem to be a hot zone for recent Influenza activity. Since I reside in Florida, let me make some observations that may provide clues for a new hypothesis that tests whether an avian link may have been overlooked or undereported. Florida has been hot and dry, little to no rainfall (at least until now) has occurred and temperatures within the seasonal southern migratory flyways have been elevated so that a notable observable reduction in transient fowl is evident. This may also be true for other flyways as well. In attempting to map clusters of Influenza activity in the U.S., I believe there is correlation to avian migratory flyways, however this is speculation on my part but does provide additional rational for outbreaks of Influenza in locales without Méxican influences.

    I will continue to test this hypothesis and provide suitable facts to support.

  102. Have been checking North American flyways for some avian connectivity to recent Influenza activity, and just happened to find an article about H2 (H2N2). Contrary to most information related to the subject, it is not extinct in the wild. Maybe I misinterpreted that it was just extinct in wild humans. Link as follows…

    http://vir.sgmjournals.org/cgi/reprint/80/12/3167

    Press manual download.

  103. A link on the CDC Fluview wesite…

    Date of ACIP vote: February 25, 2009 Date of posting of provisional recommendations: Tentative date of publication of recommendations in CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report: June 2009
    On February 25, 2009, the ACIP made policy recommendations for use of influenza vaccine for the 2009-2010 influenza season.
    Provisional recommendations for prevention and control of influenza (2009-2010 influenza season):
    • The 2009–2010 trivalent influenza vaccines will contain A/Brisbane/59/2007 (H1N1)-like, A/Brisbane/10/2007 (H3N2)-like, and B/Brisbane/60/2008-like antigens. Compared to the 2008-09 Northern Hemisphere influenza vaccines, only the B strain has changed.
    • Age and risk groups previously recommended for annual vaccination against influenza have not changed.
    • All children aged 6 months through 18 years are recommended to receive vaccination against influenza for the 2009-2010 influenza season.
    • In the United States, most influenza A(H1N1) viruses have been resistant to oseltamivir, and most influenza A(H3N2) viruses have been resistant to amantadine and rimantadine, during the 2008-09 influenza season. Consult CDC’s Interim Recommendations for Use of Influenza Antiviral Medications in the Setting of Oseltamivir Resistance among Circulating Influenza A (H1N1) Viruses (available at http://www2a.cdc.gov/HAN/ArchiveSys/ViewMsgV.asp?AlertNum=00279 ) for guidance pending new ACIP recommendations for use of antiviral medications.
    • ACIP recommendations for use of antiviral medications for the 2009-10 influenza season will be provided in a separate MMWR document. Discussion regarding recommendations for use of antiviral medications will be held, and a vote may be taken, at the June 2009 ACIP meeting. Publication of antiviral recommendations will occur before the 2009-10 influenza season.

    This is alarming! Confirmed resistance to antiviral meds.

  104. Requote from Forbes…

    Vaccine experts said it will take months to produce a new vaccine because the swine flu virus is not growing very fast in laboratories, making it difficult for scientists to get the key ingredient , the “seed stock” from the virus, they need for formulating a vaccine.

    Now that worries me.

  105. I too am watching the global conference. Still looking for the report that Adrian Gibbs out of Australia wrote to WHO. References to it… just no copy on line that I have found. If any see it, please post.

    Yeah Mikelo, seasonal flu should drop in USA the minute school is out… Shoulda-Coulda-Woulda in the past. But this flu not the only wierd thing going on past 5 years or so. H5N1… SARS, West Nile… I now test positive, lots of cases still going on in Mid-west in Summer. C-Diff and MRSA on the rise, and odd shingles outbreaks. C-diffocile now rated as pandemic outbreaks. Big conference on that last year. It’s on-line via stream. So with changes in climate, I don’t know about this novel A Virus.

    I too alarmed at three things with this A-Virus. 1)The age group shift. Young ones get it. In past the young ones would get very mild H3N2, shed it at home, and their parents would get sickest.

    This stuff seems mildest in the mature adults, harder on teens and youth. Implication of that is that Normally Mom or Dad stays home with sick kids, but get sick at home 2ndary but faster. Thus seasonal virus does not spread as fast in Adult settings. Adults have the wiser immune system. They should be reacting stronger. Exception for the tots… tend to over react immuno-wise, with least reason, then fizzle out faster. That’s why so many kids end up on antibiotics, to fight off secondary bacteria assaults.
    2) The transmission rates reported in cluster bursts. Deceptive. We are having teens & under tested due to concerned parents. I think it’s much more out there in the adult pop. then we know. If your not in the cluster, less concern.

    And this one freaks me a bit. 3)The increase of ‘no fever’ positives for H1N1. Which is the first Macro symptom of this stuff beginning to hide better. I get bad feeling about that. It appears to be cutting out an immune-response until it is critical or not running a temp ever during the mild version. The muscle aches are still major complaints with the headache. So you know the big white cells are being called out. But layman often can not tell the diference in their large joint aches compared to muscle soreness, so the marrow is not responding so heavily that knee and hip joint aches are specifically mentioned as a
    Summer flues that have been oft mentioned here, tend to run without fevers. That’s why the pop think they have just a rhino-cold. Watch the S. Hemi. I am waiting to see if the fever begins to run after the onset of sudden acute-unwellness. Crap reporting of symptoms in other countries though. I have a no confidence in Russia, China and S. America for numbers. Gotta admire China though for it’s quick action to curtail the spread.

    What is world pop now, 6 billion? They say they can make 2 billion vaccines for H1N1 in a given year. Hope they use it wisely putting a wide barrier up, if the vaccine works. Have you found a good site for symtoms reported? Also looking for any autopsy results. Specifically descriptions of the lungs and heart.

  106. I am doing a school paper on swine flu and this website was a lot a lot of help thanks!!!!!!

    Katie

  107. Also from the CDC FluView link I posted previously, higher than normal (comparative years) cases of Influenza have occurred in the 0 – 17 year old age group, with a particular spike within the 5 – 17 age bracket. An assumption might be ascertained that these age groups are relatively forced together (school) in closer proximity than other age groups, with lack of social distancing.

    Since we are nearing the end of a typical school year, would it then be logical to assume that Influenza spread be limited, and eventually decrease in this population, at least temporarily?

  108. From the weekly CDC Fluview…

    Annual influenza vaccination is expected to provide the best protection against those virus strains that are related to the vaccine strains, but limited to no protection may be expected when the vaccine and circulating virus strains are so different as to be from different lineages, as is seen with the two lineages of influenza B viruses. Antigenic characterization of novel influenza A (H1N1) viruses indicates that these viruses are antigenically and genetically unrelated to seasonal influenza A (H1N1) viruses, suggesting that little to no protection would be expected from vaccination with seasonal influenza vaccine.

    Link as follows. http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

  109. Dr. Margaret Chan, Director-General of the World Health Organization, today addressed the Sixty Second World Health Assembly in Geneva Switzerland. The title of course was “Concern over Flu Pandemic Justified”. After reading the entire transcript, the implication infered was that there is little we know about Influenza viruses, but we are better prepared than ever before. Although this was not exactly a revelation or reassurance, the summaration puts us in the “crapper”.

  110. Interesting isn’t it… about immuno-response recognition of H1N1or any virus! Relying on past segments of immuno-responses from prior vaccinations or illness. Opinions are varied. While highly hopeful, I remain woefully skeptical that H1N1 can be, even inpart, recognized due to our past innoculations. It will take a current mix and perhaps a series of changing formulas, and those may have to take a new mode of action. The not so-simple disabling the escape of the Virus activity from the affected human cell.

    The people who tell me they get sick or feel very ill after a flu-vaccination, are likely those people that have an immune response that says ‘I remember this strongly, and I am reacting.’ That ‘can’ happen when vaccinations are given frequently targeting similar flu chains through the years. H3N2 vaccines being the big one in my generation. The Question is really why one immune system keeps a longer memory than another. Of course age & health is involved as a factor. The immune reaction to vaccine declines with age, and the majority of innoculations target the aging population. H1N1 prefers the middle segment of the population. H1N1 just saying that alone means it has experience, longer than we know, at taking on the healthiest immune systems.

    H1N1harnesses the human immune response to a greater extent than most A-flues. Quick immuno recognition is needed to fight H1N1. Late response to H1N1 causes over reaction, and consolidation, Etc. The Macro reemergence of H1N1 seems to fit a pattern. Reguardless of whether double or triple reassortment. I also question opinions that want to attribute the severity of 1918-20 morbidity to several flues floating through pop. overlapping one another. No doubt but it was only H1N1 that was the intense killer in quick time at the end, and was probably H1N1 that was the mild floater some 12 months prior. Again the H1N1 RNA itself is smart. When starting out and about in humans it aims first for speedy transmission, then It begins to work on hiding from the immune system, and the speed of killing cells. Today it has a new twist over coming anti-virals. It has demonstrated that ability.

    What we don’t know is if this ‘Grander’ pattern might be encoded in something ‘smaller’ or other than the Virus RNA. Receptors smaller than receptors. Perhaps Viron transmitters on the order of neuro-transmitters yet unseen. To stay vital as a competing virus, yet not depleting the host system. Complicated stuff. Should H1N1 want to be the top dog of virus in circulation, I might be more reassured, it could stay viable as a kinder gentler H1N1, while it elbows out say, H3N2. Viruses have a way of cutting in line at the human check out counter.

    Should it be the fire-cracker of the past, meaning that’s H1N1’s real Day-job in the virus world, to clear the space & cut down or weaken the transfer of competing virus. This in the sense of spreading out the availiability of hosts and set back the progression of thinking/evolving time for competing viruses as they mix and remix in hosts. H1N1 then spinning down to sit and wait again for the trigger of too many varied and or aggressive viruses approaching it in a singular host or species. All of this just a perhaps. Run this kind of theory by an older generation and you’ll get some shaking heads. That the Micro actions are related to the Macro goal.

    In brief… is the Macro purpose of H1N1, aimed at it’s own preservation, that it’s trigger to begin what we call pandemic, more complicated than we understand. That it’s cycle differs from other A-viruses, lasting longer while marching to a pitch but is on a viral timer to cease it’s lethal aggression, and virtually removing it’s self from active circulation compared to mild viruses. H1N1 might just be the equalizer in the Virus world. Making sure other flues place nice. It of course is not asking at what expense to mankind.

    H5N1 is just now getting ready to make the jump. Human to human. It’s new and it’s higher tech compared to H1N1. Still inexperienced in the human host. Currantly learning to knock down the bird pop. it has knocked on the door of the swine host. You gotta wonder at the reaction of H1N1 to that.

    When the sellers of anything step forward to sell you on pumping your own immune response, in preparation to coming flues, Right OTC, possibly in River City, to music even, go get a second opinion.

    Thank for the sites… keep em coming Mikelo.

  111. This may be a very long shot. I am trying to correlate the percentage of seasonal influenza innoculations to actual Influenza A (H1N1 2009) patient infections for the 2008-2009 season. Evidence obtained so far is that there were approximately 140 – 150 million doses of seasonal vaccine available, but not neccessarily administered. Here in the U.S. that assumption would comprise about half the population. Considering that half of the laboratory confirmed flu cases being reported are of the seasonal variety, another assumption is that seasonal innoculation would be effective in 50% of those cases, effectively lowering overall numbers by the same amount.

    Now to the sticky part. What about other countries? Demographics and income would certainly play an important role in preventative medicine, but little other information is available (or unfound) to predetermine how effectively seasonal vaccines “may” mitigate antigenic drift of novel Influenza subtypes. Time will tell.

  112. I am sorry for the Mexican people, hopefully everything will calm down soon like their bird flu back in 2007 from China. However we all should consider the way of our modern living and behaviour. I mean we can travel,but more and more we must think and ACT responsibly sustainably. The red meat, mostly beef has some negative consequencies for us. I don´t know maybe activagers online or the WHO organisation had some interesting articles regarding that. However, Viva Mexico and thanks for your interesting website! Mike

  113. In the article from the New England Journal of Medicine of which I had posted the weblink, mention was made that at least 3 of the 11 patients diagnosed with Triple Reassortant H1N1 had previously been innoculated against seasonal Influenza. Although the current statistics continue to change with novel Influenza A (H1N1), please refer any links concerning prior seasonal innoculation of confirmed A 2009 patients.

  114. H2N2 research has provided few clues (or insight) to Influenza epidemics since the virus is presumed to be extinct in the wild. Currently, it is believed to exist only in laboratory testing kits for indentification of Influenza subtypes, and through antigenic drift has it evolved into Influenza A (H3N2), which is a seasonal illness with the ability to infect humans, swine, and fowl.

    Consider the possibility of having a nasty summer cold. Ever had one and been tested for Influenza A,B,C? Probably not, unless identified underlying health conditions precluded the infection. I’ll have a tendancy to agree with some “experts”, that you don’t find it unless you look for it. Considering the multitude of deadly infectious diseases in the world today, and other possibilities of both Canine and Equine Influenza viruses drifting to other species, it’s a wonder we sleep at all.

  115. Reporters of the news aren’t such a bad lot, however in the rush to be first to scoop (report) an account, the station must be able to provide background information and archive film footage. As with other news medias, this filler is not always accurate and inaccuracy provides an effective countermeasure to intelligent news reporting. However, this still does serve the ultimate purpose of garnering readership.

    Interesting that the WHO and CDC now report seasonal human Influenza is occurring at “about” the same rate as the novel A 2009, especially so for this time of year.

  116. I have enjoyed the site for same reasons stated by Mikelo. And it by far the best site I located for comments. When you mention a reference on this blog, I read it. Have used the WHO for years prior to net-scape days. Now I can look up facts from every avenue. I also watch senate hearings in their entirety, and prefer most Canadian, BBC series over American versions. So I absolutely snore next to medium level of boring. Still with the writing I do, I am out there to listen to theories abundant. When did the news reporters become the bad guys in this? And Why?

    Now… has Gibbs released his report to the public yet? Anyone who see’s a transcript on-line could they print the site. I just find references. Thanks again, for giving alt. access to a couple of sites on line. Much appreciation.

  117. There are plenty of blogs theorizing “what ifs”. I gravitated toward this one to avoid un-scientific, un-substantiated, un-logical, un-normal (well you get my drift) information that I feel that could benefit from my contribution to the understanding of Influenza A H1N1. By all means, if there is a proven “cure all” for the flu, please share it with the world. You might just win a Nobel Prize.

  118. Denise Knapp just posted what I have to say is a rather pointless blog post that simply lifts sections of my swine flu post and adds very little.

    In her defence, Denise had asked if she could quote from this post, but I assumed she’d do so lightly and to add her own strong perspective.

    She concludes with a rather silly conspiratorial remark that the media is scaremongeing to keep the masses controlled…bullsh. The media runs news to sell papers and grab attention.

    If the mythical *they* really wanted to control us do you think they’d do it in such a flimsy way as to use the media. *They* would just raise an army, with guns, and order us to do what *they* wanted.

    She also mentions silver, essential oils, and herbs and suggests that taking them they might somehow protect you from an emerging strain of a future virulent pathogen. Well I’m afraid that’s bullsh too. There is only very soft evidence that any dietary agent can modulate the immune system in a positive way, and indeed, supplemental antioxidants may actually suppres the immune response by lowering levels of essential free radicals that would otherwise destroy pathogens in a first line defence.

  119. Moving on to investigate H2 genome. This is probably the bad boy we should be worried about since there is not much conclusive proof that humans have been exposed (antibodies) within this last century. There is evidence that suggests H1 and H3 have been around awhile and acceptable morbidity standards preclude A 2009 as just a nasty summer bug.

  120. Also within the link I provided, is interesting news concerning the origin of this latest viral strain. No evidence as yet that this had swine origin. Does this infer human origin? By origin, I mean who (or what) was the mixing vessel?

  121. I don’t think so. The generic influenza A will continue to circulate seasonally and kill tens of thousands of people every year as it has done for years. As to 1918, it’s interesting you say “theory”, as it seems there are just theories about what happened in 1918, at the time medicine had little idea of what influenza actually was.

  122. So speculate for us a bit… Are we perhaps seeing a shift attempt happen, H1N1 displacing the H3N2 as the majority of circulating flus over the past years? And are the changes from patient to patient geno exams or reconstructs looking like H1N1 is attempting trends in reassortment?

    It makes everyone nervous seeing several A-types of flu floating in the human population at the same time. Just a reminder that the theory about 1918 matches… that several flu A’s collided within the human population during and before the onset. Cannot locate a geno-map sequence for the 2009 H1N1. If you have site please share. Could not get to one of the sites previously posted.

  123. From the CDC website…

    The May 8 FluView found that the number of people visiting thier doctors with influenza-like-illness is higher than than expected in the United States for this time of year. Second, laboratory data shows that regular seasonal Influenza A (H1N1), (H3N2), and Influenza B viruses are still circulating in the United States, but novel Influenza A (H1N1) and “unsubtypable”* viruses now account for a significant number of the viruses detected in the United States.

    *Unsubtypable viruses are viruses that through normal testing cannot be subtyped as regularly occurring human seasonal Influenza viruses. In the context of the current outbreak, it’s likely that most of these unsubtypable viruses are novel H1N1.

  124. Mortality does not seem to be a mitigating factor with this A 2009 strain. Only those with underlying health concerns appear to be the at risk group, and the probability of milder cases not being reported and therefore unconfirmed may indicate “quadrupling” of cases every day. This is unproven speculation, but signifies that the basic reproduction rate (R factor > 0) is high. My daughter (an RN) had classic flu symtoms for 1 day, but when she contacted one of her Doc’s, they told her to wait until the next day to report. Temperature subsided and wasn’t reported. Many people are suspected of having tolerance to A 2009, and symtoms may not match “full blown flu”.

  125. I just looked on the CDC website. There have been 3 deaths out of more than 2500 definite cases of H1N1, swine flu, in the US. Tragic certainly for those connected, but not yet the 6.5% mortality rate the media was entertaining in March-April. Indeed, 3/2532 is about 0.12% or thereabouts…

    Second wave viral outbreak might be different, but the northern summer might save us from that happening any time soon, if at all.

  126. If you plot the US cases of H1N1 (swine flu) from April 23 to today. They appear to be doubling every two days. It will be interesting to see if this slows down but so far it has not.

  127. This is not real specific, but the differences of this novel H1N1 have been identified. I am sure that other sites have posted this information, and this was found at nationalhogfarmer.com via the University of Minnesota Veterinary Diagnostic Lab. Position 6 (NA) is changed from Classic Swine (North American lineage) to Swine-like (Eurasian) and Position 7 (M1 + M2) is also changed likewise. The significance of this is that the North American Swine lineage has been replaced with Eurasian in the 6th and 7th positions, but not in any other as yet.

  128. My last post was a little jumbled. There should have been two columns with the genetic makeup of both patients (1-6, 8-11) and patient 7. In trying to understand what makes this latest strain different (transmissibility, endurance ratio, etc.), I am currently comparing existing triple reassortants to this novel H1N1. There is strong evidence that prior laboratory strains of H1N1 were responsible for at least two epidemics in the past, and that human negligence is suspected as the cause. In all probability, the subtypes should change as a course of nature.

    Mike

  129. Published recently in the New England Journal of Medicine.

    Genetic components of Triple Reassortant Swine Influenza A (H1) Viruses isolated from 11 patients between December 2005 and February 2009 in the United States.

    Triple Reassortant Triple Reassortant
    Swine H1N1 Influenza Virus Swine H1N2 Influenza Virus
    (Patients 1-6 and 8-11) (Patient 7)

    PB2 yellow bar PB2 yellow bar
    PB1 green bar PB1 green bar
    PA yellow bar PA yellow bar
    HA blue bar HA dk green bar
    NP blue bar NP blue bar
    NA blue bar NA green bar
    M blue bar M blue bar
    NS blue bar NS blue bar

    blue bar- Classic Swine, North American lineage
    yellow bar- Avian, North American lineage
    green bar- Human (seasonal) H3N2
    dk. green bar- Human (seasonal) H1N1

    Has anyone yet seen the genetic makeup of the latest H1N1? If so, lend me the link please.

    Mike

  130. @Mikelo I don’t think even the experts know why this virus has emerged at this time of year. It will be interesting to see how things pan out and what course predictions follow over the northern summer.

  131. Why the H1N1 cycle is so late in the year?
    The lethal strike in Haskell KS. arrived Jan. 1918 and began to spread. Doctor by the name of Minor should anyone want to look him up. He was alarmed enough to write to jounals. Some articles, reveal a less lethal (Lagrippe) was striking about in that earlier spring and oddly through out the summer. The summer had cluster bursts in families and towns, but didn’t travel far and most recovered. Only speculation can be made about the area it circulated or the median age groups. Little home town news publications, wishing the afflected well, or reporting them as recovered. The climate went dry and very hot in the Kansas summer. Haskell west of Dodge City not only near the WWI forts, but was on the cattle trail that came from the South out of Oklahoma, and Texas. Intense heat does affect H1N1. Slowing time, and capacity, some think.
    Speculation pure speculation, might indicate a mild virus coming from the south, or the influx of WWI men at the forts infecting people. Then people who worked the farms carried it into the swine. H1N1 used the summer to sit and think in pigs and then in Jan. 1918 made the leap back to humans. Ready, set, go… works to describe the pandemics of A-Virus.

    H1N1 can leap from animal to human and back… Ready
    H1N1 can leap from person to person with speed… set
    H1N1 can utilize the leaps in people to rethink it’s RNA efficiency… Go

    Speculation again, that the goal of virus is to evolve and find hosts. So it will adapt itself in it’s own design not to erradicate an entire population of hosts. So after a certain time-line it may evolve down to less passable or lethal strain. Pandemics genally hit a third of the entire population, the lethal strains (Super Pandemics) killing 50% of that third. The prime predictor of a super pandemic rests upon the health status of those targets and the speed of viral travel. The healthy and prime contracting the virus is not a good sign at this point. Nor the global speed of travel. WHO is using a two year time-line for H1N1.

    When Black Plague traveled in came in waves. Although the hard data is left to speculation, It seemed to use a different formula, but arrived to about 50% of the worlds population, killing about a third, to 50% of the entire population by the end of the big (4?) waves. It’s subsequent waves seemed to hit fewer people, meaning some immunity was being acquired. Do we acquire natural immunity to H1N1, the evidence suggests that’s possible. But by the time we do H1N1 has done similar damage to Black Plague if unchecked. In short H1N1 can do the same damage in 2 to three years that Black Plague took generations.

  132. Recent efforts have placed more emphasis and resources on the H5N1 Avian Influenza virus. The H1N1 triple re-assortant (human-swine-avian) flu was first identified around December 2005, and there have been 11 confirmed cases up until January 2009. As was recently stated, “you don’t find it unless you look for it.” I am not sure that I completely understand why H1N1 has recycled this time of year, and that transmissibility rates rank as high as measles, R factor > 12.

  133. I think we should be vigilant, but unless you’re a healthcare worker oon pager waiting for an emergency call, I wouldn’t lie awake at night or dreaming of coughing pigs.

  134. Well I’m still worried. the counts actually keep going up according to FluCount.org which makes me sleep Not So Well at night

  135. The Swine Flu April 27, 2009
    The Swine Flu epidemic is sweeping through the world with a deadly force few could have predicted. The virus exploded in Mexico and soon spread like a wild fire. Many different countries have felt the pang of this virus and continue to do so as the death toll increases.
    As an American living in Hermosillo, Sonora- Mexico, I am quite alarmed at this growing predicament. I am one of 13 Americans and one Canadian who are working for an English school and thus live here in Mexico.
    Today, at around 10AM MTS, all schools were ordered to close down by the District Federal in Mexico City. The epidemic had hit home with the speed no one was prepared for. First, it was wreaking havoc in the south and in other parts of the world, and then the entire nation of Mexico went into shutdown.
    Rumors of quarantining San Luis Potosi, a city in the South Central of Mexico where the virus is most rampant, have started to materialize.
    This maelstrom is a nightmare of a disease. It strikes out of nowhere with intensified flu like symptoms. Symptoms include: fever, sore throat, coughing, dizziness, fatigue, diarrhea, and sneezing. These symptoms, left untreated, will result in death after a period of roughly two weeks.
    I don’t feel I have anything to worry about as of yet. I’m taking the necessary precautions. I’m avoiding large crowds, washing my hands, and staying indoors as much as possible.
    However, to throw in curve ball, I recently traveled to the south part of Mexico, Mexico City to be exact. Here the virus has claimed some 44 or so victims, and where it is thought to have originated. It has been about three weeks since my return. I did return with a congested throat, but nothing too alarming.
    If the symptoms start to get worse, I’m going to be very nervous because I have no real idea what to do or where to go. I don’t know if I’m special case of ignorance, but out of the expatriates residing in Mexico, I’m sure there’s bound to be one or two more who’d be in the same situation I’m currently in.
    Well, since I have the next week off, I’m going to try and find out exactly what emergency measures exist for a foreigner living here in Mexico.
    May 2, 2009
    Since last writing much has transpired. My symptoms did get worse. I had unstoppable diarrhea for three nights straight. It was something unlike I have ever experienced before. I would visit the bathroom once every 20 minutes or so.
    As I started plummeting into the panic being stirred up by the media and locals, my girlfriend brought me over some medication. Here in Mexico, you don’t need a prescription to get prescription drugs like in the United States. She brought me two different sets of pills. I started to take them.
    They had no effect. In fact, I continued down the path. I was zapped of energy the next two days. I was completely exhausted with an extreme case of fatigue- yet another tell-tell sign of the Swine Flu.
    By this time I had several correspondences, through email, with family and friends telling them of the situation. However, I only divulged the truth of what I was personally going through to my mom. Well, after the Swine Flu was heightened from level 4 to level 5 (the next to highest level before pandemic/epidemic status), my mom’s worry turned to sheer terror. She began pleading for me to go see the doctor.
    So I did. I went with my girlfriend to the Hospital Central here in Hermosillo (Luis Ecinas- between Reforma and Avenida Rosales.)
    The sight there couldn’t be any worse. I’d say about 90% of the patients and 100% of the staff were wearing the medical masks. There were all sorts of people there with various problems. It was quite unnerving. But the more unnerving fact was that I could have the flu and I’d be the first documented case in Hermosillo. This was something I was definitely not looking forward too.
    The funny thing, I was more worried how the general public would react and treat me as an American with the flu rather than actually coming down with the Swine Flu.
    Fast forward a couple of days. I don’t have the flu, at least that’s what the doctor said. He said I had a stomach bug or something- which makes sense. And come to find out later, the reason I was so tired those two days was because of one of the pills my girlfriend prescribed me- never take anyone else’s prescription drugs, NEVER! Words of my mother.
    The doctor prescribed me 4 different drugs and Pepto Bismol. I’ve been on this concoction for a couple of days now. I’m a lot better, but my stomach is still a bit in turmoil.
    My condition is improving and will end up well, but that is not the case for some many people worldwide. People are being diagnosed left and right with the flu and the non-infected are treating them like criminals. When will this world come to its senses and stop being so anti people. I mean, people only make this world work. We need each other, yet we continually treat each other like the swine which this virus gets its name from.
    May 7, 2009
    The Swine Flu is still making global headlines, but now more for how countries have reacted to the virus. Just yesterday 40 detained Mexicans were released from China. They were in essences quarantined there for a week until the virus has seemingly come under control.

  136. @Mikelo Thanks for the link to the book on CDC and for highlighting the fact that pigs are not the host. I have re-emphasised this point, which I don’t believe I actually said in my original article anyway.

  137. To David Bradley –
    Please don’t spread the assumption that “pigs are the host animal”. Unless I am mistaken or uninformed, this has not yet been proven. If it has been proven, then the implication of an antigenic drift and link to the avian species has also been confirmed.

  138. As I posted on another website, there are some interesting questions concerning the lack of evidence for H1 recycling. Certain immunity from previous infections should have prevented this recent epidemic of H1N1, especially in those born prior to 1977. If anyone would care to read six pages of an interesting report detailing Influenza evolution, please check out “Influenza Pandemic Periodicity, Virus Recycling, and the Art of Risk Assessment”, by Dr. Walter R. Dowdle. It can also be found in “Emerging Infectious Diseases”, at http://www.cdc.gov/eid Vol. 12, No. 1, January 2006. I would really like to discuss the implications of this report with someone who is willing to read it.

  139. I live in México and the fact that pigs are only an intermediary for the virus and that eating pig is not dangerous to humans, is very bad news for the pigs…

  140. We all sigh with relief that H1N1 is going mild & that H5N1 (Avian bird flu) has not yet hopped the barrier of birds and people in closer contact with infected birds. The questions continue from the public, and rightly so. We are attempting to wrap our heads around the concept of pandemic process. It reminds me a bit of the age old debate of Creative Design vs. Evolution. Trust me when I say the H1N1, and H5N1 are all about design and evolution. Smart viruses have done what the public can not on the creation debate. Taking design and evolution, it married the two… and continues to live in that zone of harmony.

    Skeptics are asking what was the big deal about… that once again ‘cry wolf media’ got involved spreading mass paranoia, while the bio-geeks and medical-heads told us to use a cautious approach in watching the evolution of viruses in general. In fact we didn’t have mass hysteria, Some bad humor, fear mainfested as prejudice in a few cases. Nor were we all that cautious, I didn’t stop attending activities, how about you? We did have some economic rebound. The pig producers getting the short end of the DOLLAR stick.

    Now we all know we do not get H1N1 from eating pork. Most of us do not have a pig in the back yard, nor enter a CAFO for any reason. That being said… what’s up with Egypt, and China American minds want to know. To understand that we have to know a little something about Enfluenza A’s.

    Those wonderful science guys and gals in 1918 organized by a American named Welch ripped into the subject as best they could. Chasing a source to Ground Zero as best they could. Performing autopsies, and washing their own beakers. Most were not sleeping much in those two years. Out of that group people died appraoching the flu question, and others stepped into their shoes. It was a dangerous conquest. The germ theory was King, and Allopathy became the main medical model that we know today. Homeopaths and other education models still exist but the Doctor’s role and standards for treatment were locked into an American format forever. (I so miss going to the barber for a tooth-ache.)

    In the two years of the 1918 outbreak an odd thing was noted. H1N1 changed. When it faded away after the high mortality rate, a vaccine was used, and the H1N1 went home to the pig. To sit and ponder the next time it would emerge. The 1918 ‘group think’ also put forward the million dollar question… Was H1N1, going back to the pig from people on a constant basis and remixing until it had the capacity to remix, (reassort) in humans. Meaning there were constant outbreaks of H1N1? Some mild that spread from vector to vector fast & some strong and short lived but deadly? Unfortunately in 1918 it did both. And while it did this it began to develop resistance to certain bio-chemicals used against it.

    Now we come to Egypt… killing off their stock pigs as fast as they can. Oh you know some of it is religious based. A little perjudice against the pig itself. Choosing destruction rather than innoculation, or waiting on a 2nd wave indication. If you are worried about the economic ramifiacations, don’t. Egypt will of course spend money replacing their swine population, or import bacon from other sources. You can’t deny people of bacon. We love the stuff, and want to see it on the menu. It’s is their answer to the American CAFO. While we may not like the idea of CAFO’s, the structure and the procedures puts a man-made barrier between us and the pig. We don’t let people in to visit the pigs and pigs go as direct as possible to slaughter. The slaughter itself is so high-tech that human workers don’t come into contact with the pig prior to slaughter upon delivery. Then temp. manipulations keep the meat worker in complete safe practice standards.

    Egypt and China, well just like others countries, use a broader hands on with fowl and pork production. Keeping breeders for a much longer time, sorting and feeding with a village approach, delivering live meat to the markets that sell fresh & direct to the consumer. Oh and they don’t like telling the government too much about their stock health, or personal health. So going to ground zero in other countires is more difficult for authorities.

    Americans, God-love em’, have this team can-do approach. (You may or may not include the lobbists) We report, we go discover and we solve. Probably we should mention the Big Sky Montana animal research facility. The veternarian medical discoveries from those scientists are superb. Know that when a mad-cow outbreak occurred in other countries, Montana Reps. were on the plane, flying to ground zero, studying and helping. They don’t get the credit they should as the CDC and WHO etc. that deal more exclusively with people disease. And in some ways we are still small town. An expert knows another expert and teams assemble behind the scenes. Can you help, the government will ask… and we seem to answer… “Yeah and I know another gal or guy you should call.” America is not the total agency model some imagine. I find that a great comfort.

    A blogger mentioned that most flues originate in the American flu season from Asia. True we see it coming from that direction due to seasonal marching, however, keep in mind our flues march back across the globe, and reassortment occurs in all seasonal zones. Why… again it’s back to the stock, whether it is fowl or mammal remix. In the US we have less direct contact with mammal stock than almost any nation. We are definitely going to have to keep an eye on fowl migrations as global climate changes take place.

    Now we come back to H1N1, asking the virus itself… Are you done yet? It is not. We can not look in the microscope and say there it is, the strength or time duration. Wiley Cyotee RNA strands are spitting out code faster than Google, not as effective or goal precise as Google we hope. When RNA recombines making sense it’s called a gene. Unfortunately Smart Virus doesn’t believe in making stable genes that take eons to influence. If you believe in evolution wrap your head around the Earth being created in six days, If you are a creative design person think about how smart the human race has become past the opposable thumbs and into the blackberry generation. Take those concepts and you arrive at H1N1.

    If H1N1 goes around again mildly… it will retreat to a vector where it will rest and think, and emerge again. Usually soon, because it doesn’t unlearn. It just perserves itself until it leaps the wall again. If it reaches the magic codes it will run fast and strong in the 2nd wave. The global team will be talking and watching the changes in the RNA. A vaccine will be manufactured, seed virus will be the focus of our best minds.

    Until the hstory unflolds itself, the public should do it’s best to get educated. Cry Wolf media will keep reporting… why? You’ll say at first glance because it sells… not true in most cases, it is because they owe you one! In 1918 the media did a really crappy job of reporting, Spain you get a pass on that one. You did report and science relied on you heavily for your daring to be honest. In thanks we named the 1918 epidemic after your Country.

    Parents want to know about the school closings, lets remind ourselves that children shed virus much longer that grown-up adult immune systems. Count on kids shedding live virus for 72 hours. They are getting rid of the stuff better than adults. If you are a God-right or evolution-lefty we can agree that is a humanly body-mechanism to protect the life of their young. So school closings are a great barrier.

    From the CAFO to the School closings the fewer times we let the virus pass from individual to individual means the virus has fewer attempts to reassort or get smarter. It’s a dent to say the least.

    So for 90 days I rest easier. For 90 days we probably have time to get educated. I’ll garden and shop, go to programs, I won’t be wearing a mask. I also will not trash the media for reporting, nor the WHO for alerts, I will eat pork because I do that normally. I won’t be taking the latest rage in immuno-support OTC’s. I will… keep in mind that the positive tests for H1N1 are limited and that there are probably 10 for every 1 that had the flu but did not test, rather they stayed at home with a cold. Given the situation in China or Egypt I will not criticize their actions either. It would be nice to real number reports from all nations. H1N1 doesn’t really care about boundires, just barriers.

  141. @Hailey I presume you meant “pigs” when you typed “bigs”, but yes you should be concerned for those in Mexico, but I don’t think you need to worry about the pigs, they aren’t generally dying of swine flu they were simply the host species from which the H1N1 virus emerged.

  142. @Mike Such a device should be installed as a matter, of course, not everyone washes their hands before they leave the restroom after all…swine flu pandemic or not…

    @William Thanks William, I’m sure humour will help in some ways, although when people are dying it’s not always in the best taste.

    @Gnl Milworth Interesting link, one of dozens admittedly.

  143. Eliminating as many touches as possible will certainly help. Installing hands free door openers (like StepNpull) on public restroom doors is one way to reduce the spread of germs.

  144. Hi there

    This article is very interesting. The fact is a world Paranoia was created around a virus, and the only thing that I could see was that scientific advances helped to avoid the epidemy, contrary to the spanish flu in 70s. Anyway the bad side of the story is that as mexicans we are suffering some kind of discrimination thanks to a natural living entitie mutation.

  145. There are mathematical models to suggest anything you want. And yes, if something comes along that mutates into something really virulent, it can and probably will happen. But the swine flu is not yet it.

    Comparing it to the 1918 pandemic is bogus. That flu was moved around in different time frames by boat with all the shipping for World War I. At that time, it was coming in to essentially otherwise isolated populations via boat. The time frames and situations are completely different. Virus wise we are all one global population now.

    I agree, we should never trivialize the risk, and the shirts I advertised are not doing that. We are constantly at risk from lots of things – nuclear war, disease, etc. – and it is ok to look at with some humor instead of just holing up in our mouse holes and spending our whole lives worrying. I say live and laugh — otherwise you are already dead so why should you care if swine flu kills you?

    Sooner or later our global population is going to get hid hard by disease, and I am not laughing at that possibility. But at the same time we do not want to be in a boy who cried wolf situation, and then unprepared when the real wolf comes. And we do not want to let that very real possibility cause us so much worry that it steals our lives away before it even gets here.

  146. Don’t trivialise the risk from Swine Flu (H1N1). The Spanish Flu (also H1N1) killed more than 50 million people in 1918. The mortality rate from the Spanish Flu also started slow, just like the 2009 Swine Flu (H1N1) & it was the deadly second wave of the virus that hit in the Fall/Winter that killed most people.

    You need to read Flu Safe – Surviving the Pandemic by Dr Wayman (http://www.flusafe.org)

    Some mathematical models are suggesting more than 100 million people will die from Swine Flu 2009. That is why people like Dr. Margaret Chan, the head of the World Health Organisation (WHO), are saying “all of humanity is under threat”

  147. On page 138 of the book “MURDER BY INJECTION” by Eustace Mullins, it mentions something called the ‘Great Swine Flu Massacre’ in the 1970s in which drug manufacturers developed a vaccine for pigs. According to the book, the vaccine was rejected by pigs farmers, but was later marketed for human use. During the Gerald Ford administration, a vaccination program was developed in which 40 million people participated. The vaccine was discontinued due to subsequent illnesses being reported from its use.

  148. The seasonal flu in the U.S. kills 34,000 people a year. 200,000 get the seasonal flu. This is on the CDC web site. It’s the media that is making it more than it is.

  149. There are two classes of such medicines, 1) adamantanes (amantadine and remantadine), and 2) inhibitors of influenza neuraminidase (oseltamivir and zanamivir).
    Most of the previously reported swine influenza cases recovered fully from the disease without requiring medical attention and without antiviral medicines.
    Some influenza viruses develop resistance to the antiviral medicines, limiting the effectiveness of treatment. The viruses obtained from the recent human cases with swine influenza in the United States are sensitive to oselatmivir and zanamivir but resistant to amantadine and remantadine.
    Information is insufficient to make recommendation on the use of the antivirals in treatment of swine influenza virus infection. Clinicians have to make decisions based on the clinical and epidemiological assessment and harms and benefit of the treatment of the patient2. For the ongoing outbreak of the swine influenza infection in the United States and Mexico, the national and the local authorities are recommending to use oseltamivir or zanamivir for treatment of the disease based on the virus’s susceptibility profile.

    You can get a complete Swine Flu guide at http://www.swineflurecommendations.com

  150. This map takes the info from the CDC and animates it to show the swine flu outbreak in America: http://www.swine-flu-map-animation.com/ It does seem to be spreading, but not nearly as bad as everyone seems to be saying. 141 cases so far out of 300 million people. I don’t want to make light of it, but I don’t think the panic is helpful.

  151. I think think the drug companies have got so much stockpiled after the non event of bird flu, they will be going out of date soon, so lets have an appidemic to sell it on,
    For the few that have died i dont see whats the panic especially when the WHO has declared level 5 alert from 150 deaths.
    Does not seem right.

  152. I really hope that they come up with a cure to get rid of this swine flu.Maybe it is just like foot and mouth or somthing like that and will eventually go away soon and wont cause that much harm to anybody.

  153. Everyone is definitely overreacting. Yes some people have died from it but it has only been civilians in mexico and they already embody bad health anyways. yes, its also highly contagious but the way that the government is treating the issue i doubt it will become a pandemic. Its just like the regular flu people, just because we dont have a vaccine at the moment, doesnt mean we are all going to die.

  154. anti-biotics r for bacteria, flus r viral ,therefor,.pigs/swine are given anti-biotics to deter
    bacteria that are harmful to the mammals. pathogens are bacteria that are harmful to humans. not sure if the bacteria that effect pigs are also labeled pathogenic,most likely yes. one does not treat a flu with some thing like penicillin, an anti-biotic.

  155. Man you people are worrying about this WAY too much!
    It’s the flu, plain and simple. Have you seen the statictics of how many people die annually because of the flu? And how many people in the US have died so far? The majority of those infected are getting over it. If you are really young, really old, or a sick person, meaning you have multiple problems, then yes you need to be concerned.
    Why are people in Mexico dying? Well let’s look at how they livem some of these people have no running water, they live in filth, they cannot wash their hands like we can. They don’t have the medical care that we have here in the states, so that’s why so many of them are dying.
    But, we have running water, and soap, and hand santitizers, and medicines, ect, ect ect.
    The media has blown this WAY out of proportion, and people are getting way too excited about this!
    I am a nurse, and we are not worried about the swine flu. Heck, if it would help me loose those extra 10 pounds, I invite it to come here!
    Get a grip people! Wash your hands, and stay away from sick people! If you are sick, STAY HOME! if your children are sick, KEEP THEM AT HOME! Stay away from people! And everyone will be just fine!

  156. Can anyone tell me why the authorities are not banning travel to and from mexico? The EU have decided not to impose a travel ban to Mexico. They say its to late to contain the virus but let me put a question out there and maybe im very uninteligent and someone can shed some light on my question; I have just heard on our main TV station (RTE.IE) in Ireland that the first probable case has been confirmed, being that this is the first case here in Ireland it should be easy enough to contain and also to get to the people that this person has had contact with since his return from Mexico making us here in Ireland relativly safe again, however if there is no ban on travel to and from mexico the autorities are alowing more people to bring the virus into the country and give it the chance to spread from human to human and thus creating a pandemic. I am not a conspiricay theorist but It seems clear to me that they want to continue to let people bring the virus from mexico to the rest of the world. If this gets bad its because the WHO and all other athourities have let it happen for whatever reasons.

    We can let this go un noticed, what if the flu mutats and starts killing more people including you and you families, prevent this from happening by spreading your concerns.

    Thanks Folks

    John
    Ireland

  157. Lyle:

    “Treating feed animals with high levels of antibiotics will develop strains that could be worse for humans. ”

    Antibiotics are antibacterial, not anti-viral.

    I’d be skeptical if it kills more than a typical flu. However, there is a difference. It’ kills young and middle age with robust immune systems, due to hyperactive immune cells cloggling the lungs.

  158. hey,i dont think that only mexicans bought this flu its from other people too and they should’nt be that racist and anywayz how long will this last and how did it start.

  159. Fortunately, it’s not nearly as bad as the 1918 variety, although flu viruses are subject to change without notice. We are truly at the mercy of mutation here. It seems to me that the best case scenario would be for everyone to quickly get this virus; that way, we’ll have some immunity built up against a more deadly mutant.

    Perhaps we should save the antiviral stocks for that sort of scenario.

  160. On TV it has been said that swine flu is not spread by pigs, yet the facts show otherwise. Treating feed animals with high levels of antibiotics will develop strains that could be worse for humans. The only major cases reported are in Mexico. Deaths have rarely occurred anywhere else and only to the young babies or elderly with weaker immune systems. Regular flu can kill 19000 a year, this one has claimed very few so far. Some people in Canada contracted the flu but recovered nicely. It seems that putting a level 5 to this is just causing panic for no reason. It is preventable and the drug companies are holding out on the vaccine which could take years to become available they claim. I, for one am not worried.

  161. This has always been happening.The birds have the flu and anew strain can develop at any time.If this happens where the birds are in close contact with pigs the pig can get it.As humans and pigs are very close we can get it from the pig.depending on how the flu spreads it can then be spread by humans.

  162. Tracking news of the deadly disease is very important before it spreads even more. I have found a way to track Swine Flu cases in all neighborhoods through a tracklet at http://www.trackle.com to get updates.

  163. OK… my state is now checking out 20 cases that looked to be the H1N1. One is verifled. WOW. that was fast.

  164. That is not FAIR!!! How come the pig have this swine flu and we didnt even know about it until now??? How long the swine flu can last ?? I hope not forever. How come before when people are near the pig and we didnt get the swwine flu??? i wish the swine flu would end in few weeks could it??? If anybody can answer the question here that would be good. Could that happen????

  165. im so scared. i dont want the swine flu to come to The state that i live in. I really dont want to get it. IM VERY SCARED.

  166. My concern is that because of a kidney transplant, I take immuno-suppresants which compromise my immune system. What does it all mean for people in my situation?

  167. I’m sorry to sound rude kristin, but if you read the blog, most of your questions would have been answered. There is no vaccine, yeah wash your hands and just be cautious because it can be spread by people coughing and sneezing. Obviously if they did it on you. I really don’t think you have anything to worry about yet since the closest state to you that has reported cases is 4 states away in Texas but just keep updated.

  168. I just gotta say something to Robert. Read about the protests in Veracruz Mexico at the CAFO’s. Being a farmer’s daughter just imagine The birds flew in, left their dropping the hogs then mix the reserves from all. They poop too. As well as run snot and drool and other body fluids. If not disposed off properly it dries up and blows in the wind. That is usually how the direct contact workers get Flu directly from the animals. From handling them… but if not watched or the same standards used in Mexico I can imagine what got tracked about and blown in the air away from the confinement…

    Pause for real thought… They were, they said innoculating the pigs. So this is either some very tough flu that jumped the time between vaccines given or someone missed getting all innoculations into all the pigs at some point.

    They say all the pigs tested neg. for this flu… sure after they ran through and innoculated again past the point they knew they had trouble brewing.

    So when you say pollution, you are too right in a sense! At point zero someone was able to pass this on. How I am waiting to hear.

  169. Kristin, I was shocked that Florida wasn’t one of the first states. Sorry to say that. When people cough or sneeze they commonly touch their face, then the door knob etc. Washing your hands meas you put a break in everything you’ve touched, and those that have it put up another barrier by having clean hands at the next thing they touch. I think this flu can live on surfaces 24-72 hours at max.

    Migratory birds carry flues. They go in for the drink of water. They poop, then other animals consume same water, or wind up with their nose in droppings. Pigs are the closest thing to the humans for the mixing bowl to pass onward to us. Those damn pigs get our flues too.

    So here we are. I am in midwest and no one is talking about the flu yet. Big deal, they believe it could burn down to less lethal strain. Two daughters flying about the states as of yesterday and I keep wondering when it will hit here.

  170. How can it spread can it spread like if someone coughs on you or sneezs on you? all you need to do is wash your hands eat healthy foods stay away from sick peoples use hand sanitizer wich is the best hand sanitizer if it comes to florida what do we do is their a vaccine? do you think its coming to florida? i hope not god bless it wont come to florida please write back someone!!

  171. I Want to know what is the IMPACT of pollution to human lungs and Respiratory System.
    Cause, everybody is talking about the supposed swine flu in Mexico, But no one talks about the FACT, that Mexican people in RECENT DAYS have been exposed to huge amount of pollution in the capital, specifically, pollution coming for the HUNDREDS of SIMULTANEOUS Building works, currently in Mexico City.

    So many cases of atypical pneumonia in Mexico, an so small confirmed cases with this virus, along with so many travelers been in Mexico city recently got sick, Makes me think something is or has been really bad with the air of the city recently. Hope Mexico city government isn’t trying to mask and cover something.

    I got the theory that aside or along with that influenza virus, thousands of people has gotten sick due to the Poor quality of air in recent days, in that area. I would like the help of specialists in this area to research under this line of abnormal environment events in Mexico City.

  172. Which is the best hand sanitizer to use to help prevent Swine flu? And how does it spread so quick?

  173. It would appear that factory farming may be the most likely cause of the current outbreak (just as it was for the avian flu several years ago). For more see Priming the Pump of a Swine Flu Epidemic at Nature Network.

  174. At least it could be made compulsary to inoculate all pigs against swine flu. Most countries have supplies of this vaccine. How was it stopped in 1918? Start at the source! while continuing with experiments!

  175. Swine Flu Kill and Stop the Swine Flu Now! Did you know that UV Air Purifiers can kill the Swine flue virus? For decades UV Air Purifiers have been used in labs and hospitals to kill bacteria and viruses. When SARS and the Bird Flu Avian Flu can around in the past decade, what was used? UV!

  176. If you were vaccinated against swine flu in ’76 do you have any protection against this strain of swine flu?

  177. Only doctors and nurses, military and so on will get the shot of tamiflu…There simply isn’t enough stock to distribute to the everyday person…

  178. @Tom The myriad forms of influenza exist essentially inactive in dozens of different niches where cross infection between different hosts species (pig, bird, human etc) is occurring randomly. It is only when a strain evolves that causes symptoms and can be transmitted between members of the same species that we have to worry, especially if a virulent and potentially lethal human-to-human strain emerges, which has happened in this instance. That said, despite the tragic deaths in Mexico this virus has not yet proved itself particularly virulent or lethal.

    That’s not to say that it won’t continue to evolve but it could become even milder or get worse, no one knows at this point. Stay tuned and don’t forget to subscribe to the Sciencebase RSS newsfeed for my updates.

  179. Is there a reason why the swine and come in to contact with birdflu .daes this mean that there is an differen point oif origin of the flu. how can you tell how where it first boroke out is the pioint of orignal orgin.?

  180. @RA I don’t think the vast majority of the world’s population has the option, nor can afford, to buy antiviral drugs. It certainly won’t be an option for most people to bunker down with their supplies at home when it hits. It’s funny how some readers, usually within a single geographical region (naming no names) consider only themselves and their compatriots when discussing such issues as if the other 6.6 billion of us somehow don’t count.

    @Garn I agree and have said so. It could be the first wave of an impending pandemic (like the second killer wave we saw in 1918-9) or it could be a passing wave and the next one will emerge elsewhere (perhaps even be an Asian avian influenza strain; anyone remember bird flu?

    @Carol Yes, that’s recommended reading, certainly.

    @Snuggler I hope someone finds your vid amusing, I got bored and didn’t watch to the end.

    @Evelyn There’s nothing we could do to alter the seriousness, just hope that it isn’t and that it will fade of its own accord.

    @Jay Cooler heads are needed, but if you get flu, you tend to get a fever, so not necessarily possible for those infected by the virus.

  181. Thanks David… no more said on what you said…

    Franz…
    Antivirals will help. It’s key to start asap. They tell your immune system to settle down and not overreact to the real deal flu’s. Amatidine been working for the flus that attack the immuno-compromised for years in this nation… Trouble is this is H1N1. When it attacks the strongest immune systems it goes like this… Takes about 48 hours and your immune system doesn’t recognize the virus so it lets loose with everything its got. So the best shape people have the worst onsets and outcomes.

    Tamiflu & R. works with the worst of the flus because it calms down several forms of auto-immune releases. When the big cytokines come out, they attack the lung cells as well as the virus. Now if it didn’t make a total wasteland leaving destroyed cells and debris clogging the lungs and consolidating all the bare tissue, your cells would start to regrow and come back.

    Advice… If you have a fever and your large joint spaces hurt like hell with a headache you are in the storm of the virus. Those large joints are sending various virus fighting cells as fast as your bone marrow can make it. Trust me then you will take the antiviral.

    The evidence points out that we have used the new antivirals on the low grade flus and nonflu. And those flus and colds don’t cause the big storms like H1N1, or H5 will. But no one has really tracked their effectiveness either. Every other adult with a bad cold it seems has used Tami. or R. Not much in that business chart other than, ran it’s course patient reports improvement. Beats death. If he was ever really in danger of that.

    By the time people went down with avian they were in bad shape, and it was usually direct from animal contact. We are are hoping… from the data that tamiflu will be much more effective on the person to person reassortment of H1N1. They took their cues from HIV, another smart virus that requires auto-immune suppression. They keep their livers now because it’s a regime.

    Read Barry’s book on the 1918 history. It’s the best I’ve found. And it’s damn scary too!

    My Big question is just how fast can a vaccine be ready, and at what point does our government tell the drug companies to go…

  182. Purchase Relenza and or Tamiflu now before there is a run on the drugs. Purchase enough food and toilet and sanitary produicts to last 2 mos….when it hits stay home…..good luck…..survive….you’re on your own…..Capt. R

  183. Thanks for posting this. It might be the start of a pandemic, but it is more likely just a bit of a preview for the inevitable flu pandemic that lies in our future. In the latter case, the good that comes from it (not to diminish at all the tragedy of those who have died from this outbreak) will be better preparation for that eventuality.

  184. Reading Recommendation, Easy Read.

    “The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance” is a book written by Pulitzer Prize and Peabody winner Laurie Garrett .Translation: it’s an easy read for us non-science types).

    You can buy a perfectly good used copy of the book on Amazon for $1.99. http://www.amazon.com/Coming-Plague-Emerging-Diseases-Balance/dp/0140250913

    There’s a whole chapter on swine flu.

    Not only that, it gives you a better perspective on how the US has handled the threats from viruses and disease in the past. And gee, what’s even better, you don’t get A.I., artificial intelligence, you get the straight science that we all have forgotten since Biology 101, and infinitely more interesting.

    The only problem with this book is that it doesn’t tell you how to get rid of the Conspiracy Theorists, or those who are so bored beyond belief that they sit around and read conspiracy blogs all day long instead of taking up useful hobbies like organic gardening, or tin foil hat making. That requires a different book, probably from the Psych section.

  185. Hi i’m Evelyn Matthews i’m a junior at chattooga high school and i have question is there anything we can do to spread the seriousness of this disease and how to prevent from getting it?

  186. I think cooler heads should prevail. Keeping up with WHO and CDC updates is the best way. Overreaction resulted in the debacle of the last Swine Flu.

  187. @realist Yes, we know that influenza has been killing people for centuries, and certainly there are thousands of deaths every year. Malaria has killed more people through history than all other causes put together! Now, that’s a real worry. BUT. A pandemic is a bit different from seasonal flu that afflicts the immunocompromised, infants, and seniors seriously and often lethally. A pandemic of a virulent strain will kill millions of people within months, if not weeks once it takes hold. That’s not to say that this latest emerging virus will be *the* one, it could be the next one or the one after…

  188. Approximately 36,000 deaths are associated with Influenza A in America every year. Influenza has been killing people for 2400 years. Sure it’s serious. But it’s no more serious than it has been since Hippocrates identified the symptoms 400 years before the birth of Christ.

  189. @Lynette That is the most ludicrous statement yet. What do you think would happen to a nation’s economy if you suddenly expelled all visitors?

    @Tabetha I’ve down-moderated your even more ludicrous statement. I don’t think we really need proclamations of the healing powers of mythological characters from ancient history.

    @Hannah You’re almost certainly correct in that any situation is almost always given a more dramatic slant by the media reports, but remember it is the punters who read the papers and watch the TV news who feed that situation.

  190. I think all the visitors in US should be sent back to their county if someone were to get sick and spread it or if they got sick why should we pay for their healthcare. I am concerned.

  191. I’m concerned no matter how much people say that we should not be. my point is people are becoming ill and are losing their life and i think their families would not have the same opinion about this situation. i do not think any one should panic, but at least see this as a very serious matter. if we decided to not be concerned and then it spreads more than expected then there will be no way to give back the lives to all the people who lost theirs. this is a very important matter and it should be treated as one.

  192. Interesting information, albeit anectdotal, from the neighbors of a factory farm in Mexico who believe it to be the cause:

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090428/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_swine_flu_mexico_ground_zero

    Yet another reason it is unethical to enable a handful of big agribusinesses to profit at the expense of the rest of us.

    For those following the swine flu story concerned about a possible pandemic, you should be concerned about a program being fought by many small farmers in the US right now that can have a direct affect on your family’s health. The program, National Animal Identification System (NAIS), falsely labeled as a disease control program, is designed to help big agribusiness at the expense of small farmers and every person who owns even one animal.

    It is hard to believe that most people still don’t know that factory farms concentrating animals in confinement spread diseases while small family farms with animals on grass in the sunshine minimize diseases by allowing manure to be spread out in small amounts quickly utilized by the soil. What kind of farm would you rather live next to?

    NAIS will encourage the wrong kind of farms while shutting down the right kind. NAIS takes agriculture in the wrong direction, against nature. But remember, nature always bats last.

    Allowing NAIS to go through will enable the factory farms with manure lagoons breeding the next pandemic, exposing millions to increased risk of death from disease.

    Contact your representatives and tell them to stop NAIS. (now watch the apologists for factory farms and proponents of giving up your rights come out of the woodwork)

    Remember, an eartag never stopped a disease.

    Mike Murphy
    Michigan

  193. OIE (World Organisation for Animal Health) stated April 27th: “The virus has not been isolated in animals to date. Therefore, it is not justified to name this disease swine influenza.”
    Why is it called “swine flu”?
    I assume due to the fact that the virus H1N1 is somewhat similar to other subtypes found in hogs.
    The European Commission is speaking of a “novel flu virus” which seems to make more sense and does not create the wrong impression that meat or meat product consumption is a risk. Viruses are to my knowledge inactivated at temperatures below cooking temperatures.

  194. There is a great deal of misinformation in the West that we have an antiviral vaccine to combat the new Swine Flu killer virus. But there is no antiviral drug presently that will protect the global population against this new Swine Flu virus. That is fact not fiction and why WHO and others are so concerned.

    A full post on Dr Hill’s views can be read at the newly launched SciScoop Science under the headline, No Swine Flu Vaccine. The post will go live 17h00 UK time, today; about 12h00 EST.

  195. Did anyone here that there could be a bioterrorist connection? I also read that if it reaches pandemic status it could kill 2 million Americans. How many people are out of work again? Does anyone find this strange?

  196. Here in Sacramento, there are already 3 confirmed cases of swine flu. I have to admit that I’m just a little paranoid here, but I won’t let it cloud my judgment. I figured the best that I can do is practice universal precaution to limit my exposure to the virus.

  197. Antiviral drugs such Tamiflu and Relenza have very small effect on viruses once in the human being. They are effective in vitro, but once in human body the concentration needed is so high you wil have your liver gone before. More than this Tamiflu was declared by lots of articles as uneffective in a percentager that goes from 50 to 90 % of cases. Also on Cochrane this is cited.

  198. @Katth I agree totally, elevation and humidity are total red herrings. What we have to not do is panic and waste all our Tamiflu on this weak strain, because a more virulent version of human-transmissable swine flu may emerge in the coming weeks and have a far more devastating effect.

  199. Elevation… phuuey. The course of the wave is doing exactly what it did in 1918.

    It killed in Haskell KS. Then went mild form as it spread world wide. Then the reassortment of RNA got smarter. Came back around in 90 days with a form the immune system attacked with a vengance. The immune system of the strongest, meaning the best ages of 9-40″s wiped out the lungs.

    So the first outbreak in Mexico will depend on the autopsies. Bet the lungs look like a barren waste land.

  200. @KDM Antibiotics won’t stop a virus, but if you have influenza then one of the most common causes of death is bacterial pneumonia, antibiotics are an essential component of treatment in such cases. I certainly agree regarding vitamin C and would never advocate mega doses as I think the evidence is against the purported benefits. Moreover, if the flu doesn’t kill you the vitamin C could give you nasty kidney stones later.

  201. Also, boosting your immune system up to insane levels through taking Vitamin C and some of the others you mentioned, could actually be harmful.

    Look up Cytokine Storm.

  202. Most likely the huge stockpiles of tamiflu owned by the govt are about to expire and since we all know big pharma and the gov are chummy it’s time to ramp up some more profit for Roche.

    Dr. John is right on about silver but there are other great naturals that will do the trick. The old standbys like vitamin C, garlic, goldenseal, and elderberry are great antibiotics. I’ll be stocking up on elderberry wine!

  203. Doc John, that’s some kind of a hoax? Like silver bullets to strike down vampires? How’s some rottening metal going to help against a virus, that’s what I don’t get…

  204. THEY ARE DYING IN MEXICO CITY BECAUSE OF THE ELEVATION:
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15581198
    I dunno, maybe it is the elevation that causes low humidity. Elevation makes pneumonia more deadly. Mexico City and San Luis Potosi have high elevations. Not so much Baja Mexico and IDK about Oaxaca, but the majority of deaths are Mexico City.
    The origination in Mexico is a complicating factor, but people aren’t dying because they are Mexican, they are dying because they live at high altitude in Mexico City. These cities would be most at risk if global Swine Flu outbreak: http://www.trivia-library.com/a/10-highest-elevation-cities.htm
    The severely sickened women in California with a weakened immune system developed diarrhea but *not* pneumonia. If she lived at altitude I bet she would’ve died of pneumonia.

    Still corrollaries with first Spanish Flu wave so want vaccine and want to wipe out this weak “wave” and/or animal reservoir ASAP to avoid replaying fall 1919 second wave.

  205. Because we in the US have swine all around us and especially in the midwest and south where swine smell actually permiates the air, and because we eat large portions of swine, we are less apt to get severe cases of swine deseases. Our immune system is set up because of our contact with the animals.

    Swine do not die from swine flu.

  206. good thing i have a huge supply of silver, not. i have never seen anybody ask for silver in a store, and plus silver is expensive. where can i find the silver that “helps”?

  207. I have a pet pig who lives in our home. Are we more succeptable to this illness with him here with us? I can’t imagine him not being here and am really concerned. We live in Florida and so far, there are no documented cases of swine flu here…Any thoughts?

  208. There has also been one case of the Swine Flu in Ohio. The gril they say is ok, but yet Ohio are still closing more schools.

  209. No it won’t, pork is cooked so it won’t have swine flu spread like that but it spreads by people now but at first it was pigs who had swine flu spread to people who touched the pigs

  210. Atomised trace amounts of silver has a long history of successful use against most forms of microbes, dating back for thousands of years to ancient Greek and Roman times. European aristocrats ingested trace amounts of silver from their silverware thus providing resistance to plague, smallpox, polio, pneumonia and other serious infections. Modern day Indians eat silver foil in their food.

    Its new modern more purified form has been demonstrated by controlled scientific clinical studies to be safe and effective with oral ingestion and to often bring about dramatic improvements in cases of bronchitis and pneumonia. Anyone with a serious infection whether respiratory, GI, bladder or skin should have an opportunity to try orally good quality silver mineral water which contains trace amounts of silver atoms and which inactivates most bacteria and viruses. Most versions, commonly called Colloidal Silver and sold in many health stores, do not have the Zeta Potential or ppm or smallest atomic cluster size of less than 10 nanometres to be effective against the most vicious viruses. Users should ensure that the product has been verified by an independent lab or buy their own generator.

  211. Canopus biopharma and a leading Chinese research have teamed up to treat influenza, to prevent a possible pandemic:

    prnewswire.com/mnr/canopusbiopharma/34441/

  212. i just heard about this flu today, and an hour ago i found out my boyfriend had been in long contact with a guy who is now in the hospital because of this, im worried not for me, but 4 my family and my small dogs i sleep with(they r like my kids). i dont know what to do or what to think…

  213. Please, no conspiracy theories for a possible influenza epidemic. The existance of H1N1 preceded the outbreak in Mexico, as scientists in Japan had isolated the H1N1strain earlier in the year.

    Vaccine Resistant H1N1 in Japan Raises Concerns
    Recombinomics Commentary 21:44
    February 2, 2009
    http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02020903/H274Y_Japan_Vaccine.html

    Anything less than fact is not helpful in these cases.

    “Viruses can evolve in a short time frame. Consequently new booster shots are required annually for viruses like influenza. To rapidly evolve, viruses use recombination, which involves swapping of genetic information within specific genes. This is accomplished by a “copy choice” method in cells infected by two distinct viruses.

    The recombination mechanism recycles polymorphisms in various combinations. These polymorphisms have already been selected over millions of years, and the virus simply creates new combinations to evade immune surveillance or drug treatments. Recombination follows specific rules that can be used to predict the sequence of emerging viruses.”
    Source:http://www.recombinomics.com/viral_evolution.html

  214. If you know of good maps related to the Swine Flu Outbreak, please notify me via the comments field here and replying to me. I will get them posted on SwineFluMaps.com, which is a resource for documenting where cases have been documented, as well as latest news, etc.

  215. I currently take this supplement based on trans-resveratrol. there is evidence that it blocks the replication of the type A flu virus. It has been shown in some studies to do this. Just thought I’d share my experience in this scary time.
    The product I use is called Lixir, though there are a few different ones out there.

  216. As Swine Flu is spread by human to human contact, and children are the # 1 spreaders of germs, it becomes imperative to educate children on how germs are spread. Young children don’t spread germs because they want to, they don’t know how NOT to. Germy Wormy Germ Smart for Kids educates and entertains kids while teaching them how to NOT spread germs. Please pass along to anyone who has young children and is concerned about the spread of the Swine Flu: germywormy.com

  217. why is there so much panic being reported by the local and national news. so far all cases in the usa are being reported as “people recovering”. why is it that the obama administration calls for a health emergency? the bill that bush signed last year gives the president almost dictorial powers. can this be a false flag for martial law? are those fema camps, (which are on google earth) usable in a quarentine situation or a refusal to take a vasccine? not really a conspiracy theorist, yet gun stores shelves are being emptied, many other odd public reactions. also has any one heard or read the “georgia guidestones” fairly chilling, they have also recently been vandalized. just google or youtube them for current info. best to all keep your head down.

  218. Hi ! My name is Sergio Velazquez and I´m from Mexico City, Yesteday I thought it was a political movement but today I´m not so sure, Everybody is scared around here, the streets are empty, everybody is home, The point is that we do not trust our goverment. They cretated a story when the peso devaluation came. It was about the goat sucker (chupa cabras). I hope this time they are being honest. GOD BLESS MEXICO

  219. These times demand boldness and assertion. I call for everyone who has taken the time to post responses on this blog to write a letter to their local politician or to the CDC expressing their concern. Emails don’t work. Print it and send it. The CDC consumes billions in tax dollars, and they are awfully quiet about this outbreak. Send a letter and have it published on dailyletter.net where your ideas can reach others.

  220. I’m from Mexico City and very questions arise about this situation:
    1.- If all the cases detected in US of this same type of viruses have not finish in the death of the patients, wich are the real reason of the death of near of 80 patients in México?
    2.- The cases in NY in a school determinated close for two days the activity only in this school. Why in México all the schools remain close by ten days ?
    3.- In this year will be elections for the congress and the goverment has repeated all the time that everything is controled front this health challenge and that the people must be safe with his healthy politics. The only that they no say is vote for us…

  221. 108 deaths in Mexico tied to flu out of 1500 sick=7% death rate, 1918 flu death rate was 2.5% or 50 mil people

    Most flus start in Sotheast Asia or Africa not Mexico-STRANGE

    FLU CONTAINS 4 FLU STRAINS, 2 SWINE, 1 HUMANE AND BIRD FLU, CAHNCES OF NATURALLY OCCURANCE .01%, MOST LIKELY GENETICALLyY ENGINEERED.

    STAGE 2 CAUSE sDEATH, STAGE ONE IS MILD , IMMUNE SYSTEMS COMPRoMISED, (OR RELAPSE) STAGE TAKES HOLD AND KILLS.

    VERY SUSPICIOUS, I BELIEVE IT TO BE A BIOLOGICAL, TERRORIST, ATTACK OF A WMD!

    TELL TALE SIGN WILL BE IF AMERICANS WHO RECOVER FROM STAGE 1, RELAPSE WITH STAGE 2 AND DIE.

    The first case was seen in Mexico on April 13. The outbreak coincided with the President Barack Obama’s trip to Mexico City on April 16. Obama was received at Mexico’s anthropology museum in Mexico City by Felipe Solis, a distinguished archeologist who died the following day from symptoms

  222. Hello everyone,

    I just want to state that in Mexico, a woman suspected with SARS (avian flu) got into a hospital in Oaxaca on April the 13th, after routine tests SARS was discarded but the sample of her mucose was sent to health oficials who in turn sent it to USA and CANADA who discovered that it was a new virus and who called MEXICO on April 23th to let it know that a new disease was on his city. Mexico could no longer pretend that the deaths being reported around its cities were a lie, because his neighbors had warned it to take action.

    It is important to know that the woman who got to Oaxaca in Mexico, had been ill for several days, had diabetes and was 39 years old. It is suspected that all the people who have died had let the illness evolve for a long period or had compromised immune systems.

    This illness attacks vulnerable human beings who let the illness evolve in their bodies until it’s too late and who take medicines themselves, while they do that they pass the illness around and around.

    Be sensible and go to the doctor, the symptoms are: swollen throat, red eyes, coughing, sneezing, and when he illness has advanced, diarreah and stomach aches.

    Have a nice day, and take care of yourselves.

    Paul.

  223. We had plans to fly tomorrow to Southern Mexico for a week. Thinking about cancelling these plans. Your take?

  224. How strange? How did government know to order 50 million doses of tamiflu in advance? Maybe it is possible that manufacturers of vaccines and treatments are responsible for introducing these diseases for profit? Or is there something more sinister going on? Population/numbers contol or some form of bio warfare?

    I just read the following article 15 mins ago” Quote: “Napolitano said the federal government had 50 million doses of the antiviral flu medication Tamiflu, and a quarter of those doses were being released to states, if needed, “particularly prioritizing the states where we already have confirmed incidence of the flu.”

  225. the goverment may be at it again. at the G8 summit thay had this year they said they needed to get rid of like onethird of the world. who says the goverments of the world have put this swine flu out to kill us. they may have allready had there shots to keep them from getting it. you sure can,t trust this goverment or no other one. in the bible it talks about things like this and the world leaders want to control everything.the people of the world need to watch everything that goes on.and we need to protect each other.

  226. A Google map is being used to track the spread of swine flu.

    Pink markers are suspected cases, purple markers represent proven cases, and markers that don’t have a black spot are deaths.

    http://bit.ly/P2mcc

    France, Israel, Spain, Canada, Scotland, have joined the list of suspected or actual cases.

  227. this is the first part of the new world order goverments will infect there own cillivians to control the masses

  228. I’m from Mexico City. Things look pretty bad around here. Lots of people sick with influenza like symptoms. Everybody believes that maybe the situation is much worse than what is officially recognized. People are now mostly at home, following instructions from health authorities. I recommend all of you to be prepared as this swine flu should become pandemic in the next few days.

  229. One of the fears of the Obama Bug is containment and getting to the person who has contracted it in time. Just to know that there could be carriers anywhere, in any major population center, is reason enough for cautious safeguards to be enforced.

  230. This is nominally similar to Spanish flu – H1N1, but it’s a highly evolved sub-species that has never been seen before.

    According to the Guardian, experts have already warned that it may be too late to contain this new outbreak, given how widespread the known cases are. If the confirmed deaths are the first signs of a pandemic, then cases are probably incubating around the world by now, according to Michael Osterholm, a flu expert at the University of Minnesota.

  231. what should be do in case this become worse is there a plan or protocol that will be put in place?

  232. aint this the same strain as the spanish flu that happened in 1918 i looked it up and is the same hn1

  233. I was one of the soldier at Ft Dix NJ at the time of last swine flu. It came and left quickly. Those soldiers who became sick , you were talking to them at lunch, then they going to the hospital the next hour. When the soldiers came back, they were very weak and sent home on medical leave. For some strange reason, I caught measles instead. It was one of those events you don’t forget.

  234. It’s now way too late to contain this outbreak. Individuals and businesses need to use the time left to get at least the fundamentals of their business and home preparedness completed. The pandemic preparedness section of the Bird Flu Manual Online can help. You can also get your pandemic stockpiling completed.

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