Hobbies for your Covid-19 self isolation

I posted a list of frequently asked questions (FAQ) with answers regarding the novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes the potentially fatal Covid-19 (Coronavirus disease 201), now pandemic, back in late January. Things have moved on apace, social distancing, self-isolation, quarantine, lockdown are buzzwords we are hearing more and more as the virus spreads. Countries are closing borders, airlines are on the verge of failing, restaurants, bars, sports venues, and theatres are all operating behind closed doors, if at all.

I gave up updating the FAQ a while ago and linked to a better one where Sciencebase readers can get important current information, it’s at the top of the FAQ.

But, there is one FAQ that needs to be asked, at once, and I did, on Facebook:

So, all those hobbies that people scoffed at for years, which ones will you be taking up in your splendid isolation?

The answers have been rolling in, some people seemed to have assumed this wasn’t a flippant, light-hearted, almost facetious, mood-lightening, amusing question in the light of a global tragedy unfolding daily before our eyes, but hey, the literal web will survive us all. Anyway, here are a few of the interesting remarks that came back:

Chris РToday I have tried and failed: making papier-m̢ch̩ from toilet roll, distilling vodka, plane spotting, and Spanish conversation

Clive – I like plane spotting: rebate, jack, smoothing, block…

Mo – I think it’s time we played a few games of Risk

Robert – Hand washing

Mike – Hand wringing

Patrick – I’m making a map of the known universe and beyond out of pasta and toilet rolls. What else am I going to do with all of this stuff…no idea why I bought it all really

Nancy – A Seattle epidemiologist has given the thumbs-up to sex. Bonus points if it’s sex for one

Mark – Apparently, Italians have been given a free month’s subscription to a porn website

Dave – Nice to see that everyone’s pulling together in times of crisis

Stephen – I’ve been threatening for years to get the kids to cut the lawn with the kitchen scissors – I might just get around to seeing how long it would take to do…

Bill – Photographing the neighbours with my long lens. Oh, wait, did you mean NEW hobby?

Jorian – Writing up research notes on our family history for the survivors

Mark – Model trains are my thing!

Stephen (again) – Yeah the “kids” layout in the loft might get some attention too

Deborah (who is moving house) – I’m still packing

Sciencebase – I’ve just cut up some eggboxes to replace the sodden ones in the moth trap

Mandy – Not going to need a new spring wardrobe; reasons to be cheerful

What is a pandemic?

When a new disease comes to light, AIDS, SARS, and most recently COVID-19, the health experts and the media bandy about words like epidemic and pandemic. Today, COVID-19 has been described as on the verge of becoming a global pandemic.

The word pandemic with relation to disease means affecting all the people. pan meaning all, demos meaning people or district, Greek pandemos. So medically, speaking we see it as either potentially affecting everyone or more usually affecting every possible region of the world, in the sense of a global pandemic.

An epidemic has a similar meaning, the epi means among, and the demos might refer to people or a district with people, so among the people of a given district. It is usually used to refer to an outbreak in a specific region or among a group of people, hence the word epidemiology, the study of epidemics, outbreaks of disease in a given area or among a group of people. There is also usually some implication of the rapid spread of a given disease in an epidemic.

In contrast, a disease that is endemic is usually confined to a specific geographical group of people or region. The en simply meaning in.

 

Coronavirus FAQ

UPDATE: 2020-03-03: I’ve not had time to update the FAQ, so here’s a link to a more current one elsewhere that’s got answers to some of the bigger questions too.

UPDATE: 2020-02-24: A vaccine against COVID-19 is now being manufactured in Australia ready for lab tests.

UPDATE: 2020-02-18: WHO’s latest epidemiology: Over 80% of patients have mild COVID19 and will recover. In just 14% of cases, the virus leads to pneumonia. For one in 20 patients, it causes potentially fatal respiratory failure, septic shock and multi-organ failure.

UPDATE: 2020-02-11: The WHO has given the viral disease an official name, based on COronaVIrusDisease, hence COVID-19.

UPDATE: 2020-02-10: Scientists now suggesting that coronavirus source may be pangolins, which are used in Chinese “medicine”. Details here.

UPDATE: 2020-02-02: Death toll in China now more than 300, first death outside China (Philippines), although infection was in China.

BREXITDAY UPDATE: 2020-01-31: Two cases confirmed in the same family of coronavirus infection in the UK (BBC)

UPDATE: 2020-01-30: WHO  declares coronavirus international emergency, says we must stop its spread to vulnerable countries

UPDATE: 2020-01-28: 106 deaths reported in China so far. 4000 confirmed cases. Virus present in at least eleven other countries and regions. WHO yet to declare international health emergency

What is a coronavirus?

Coronaviruses are a group of viruses that cause diseases in mammals, including humans, and birds.

Why are they called coronaviruses?

The name derives from the fact that the viral capsule has a crown-like halo surrounding it, when viewed under the microscope.

What do coronaviruses do?

In humans, the virus infects the airways giving rise to flu-like symptoms, a runny nose, cough, sore throat and fever, these are usually mild, but in rare cases can be lethal.

Is there a vaccine against coronaviruses?

No.

Are there any drugs to block or treat infection?

No.

When were coronaviruses first discovered?

In the 1960s

Any details?

The first one discovered was an infectious bronchitis virus in chickens. At about the same time, two viruses from the nasal cavities of human patients with the common cold were identified and dubbed human coronavirus 229E and human coronavirus OC43.

So coronaviruses cause the common cold?

They are usually present when someone has a cold, so yes, pretty much.

Why are we so worried about them?

Some coronaviruses cause serious respiratory tract infection that is far worse than the usual symptoms of the common cold. In the elderly, infants, people with compromised lung function (such as asthma patients, COPD sufferers, people with lung cancer), an infection can ultimately be fatal, often through the development of pneumonia.

Is the Wuhan coronavirus a dangerous form?

It has infected several hundred people that we know about so far and there have been a couple of dozen deaths, mainly among vulnerable people infected with the virus. The World Health Organisation is not yet endowing this virus with the same worrying global status of earlier epidemics. It may yet be contained and fatalities limited significantly. Nevertheless, China has quarantined 20 million people already. Wuhan is a city the size of London, England.

Where did this virus come from?

At the end of 2019, a new strain of coronavirus, scientists named 2019-nCoV, was first reported in Wuhan. It is by definition an “emergent” strain of the virus and is thought to have made the species leap from infected animals to humans, probably in an environment where diseases animals are in close proximity to people, such as a live-produce market.

Where is the virus going?

Already, there have been many cases outside Wuhan and China is locking down public transport. Air travel has allowed the virus to spread to Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, South Korea, Vietnam and elsewhere, and it has already reached the USA.

How long do symptoms take to emerge?

Up to fourteen days. This makes it difficult to screen people because they may be infected and travelling with the virus without displaying a fever or other symptoms.

Will I catch it?

You are only likely to catch the virus if you have travelled to places where it is obviously present or if you have come into contact with people who have visited those areas. If you have and you think you have symptoms, stay at home, call your physician or local healthcare provider for advice. Do not go to the emergency hospital or your doctor’s surgery, you could end up spreading the virus to others who have other health problems.

Will they check me over at the airport?

Several US airports and other places have introduced screening of passengers arriving from Wuhan. If the disease spreads widely, screening is likely to be introduced at many other airports. Basic screening might involve measuring the temperature of travellers’ foreheads non-invasively to spot those with a fever.

Is it infectious before symptoms appear?

Yes, unfortunately, it seems that the virus can spread between people during its incubation period(up to two weeks) before they present with any symptoms, such as high temperature. Temperature screening would not find asymptomatic carriers, this means an epidemic could become a reality once a critical infection rate is passed even before we realise how many people have caught the virus. Many colds and influenza viruses are infectious even before symptoms appear.

What’s the latest news on this coronavirus?

2020-01-25: 22 Chinese provinces affected; billion+ people. 56 million people banned from travelling at epicentre of viral outbreak, Hubei. 41 dead, 1200+ infected, 237 critical.

Should we be panicking?

Scaremongering and sensationalist headlines abound, they’re usually wrong, but conversely, the voice of reason urging us to stay calm may well be wrong too. UCL virologist Jennifer Rohn has this to say: “…we need to treat any unknown emerging disease as if it has the potential to be a massive and devastating pandemic — because despite preliminary assessments of the rate of spread and how many people have died, the jury is still very much out.”

So, how do we cope?

Quoting Dr Rohn again: “We’ll never know when the ‘big one’ has arrived until it’s already too late. So let’s deal with each outbreak as if it could be our last.” Unfortunately, no nation is ready, unfortunately, the US has cut funding in the face of preparedness for such an outbreak that might kill millions worldwide, as earlier epidemics have done.

Should I wear a facemask?

Feel free, but the cheap ones won’t offer much protection as they don’t seal around your mouth and nose well. They will to some extent limit the degree to which you might spread infection if you are a carrier by trapping your nasal and oral fluids. Proper surgical masks are sealed, but uncomfortable to wear and harder to breathe and talk through.

Facemasks might reduce the spread of infection in enclosed spaces, such as public transport and in live-produce markets where infection may be present and animals are being slaughtered in public. But, they unnecessary in the open air where infections are not readily transmitted between people. Shoes tramping through spilled matter in a market are a more likely vector for viruses.

Most “airborne” viral infections are actually passed on through so-called fomites. Bodily fluids that land on door handles via coughs and sneezes or from an infected person’s hands where they have wiped their nose or coughed into their hand and the contaminated a surface are a much more efficient route for transmission of an infection. More about facemasks in the face of emergent pathogens here.

You can read a more detailed and technical FAQ on the coronavirus in Popular Mechanics.

Emerging viral infections

Emerging viral infections: what did we learn from SARS?

This briefing document was prepared for the UK’s Royal Society in 2004, but its message seems just as relevant given the current warnings regarding avian flu and the allegedly imminent flu pandemic. Immediately after the Royal Society meeting, outbreaks of avian H5N1 disease were reported in a number of countries including Vietnam, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, China, and Indonesia. Human cases had also been reported in Thailand, but the concern is whether human disease is been missed elsewhere. In 2005, this avian virus still poses a serious threat to human health and is one with significant implications for animal production and economies. The long-term, global implications are only just being considered. Should this incredibly virulent strain avian flu transcend the species barrier and become infectious between people we could be facing a disease far worse than SARS.

2020 UPDATE: We faced MERS after SARS and now COVID-19

Infectious threats

We are facing more and more emerging infections partly because of international travel and rising population densities, poverty, food and water insecurity, a refugee crisis, and continued interfacing between people and wildlife. Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in the winter of 2002-2003 was just a single example that has taught the international medical community, researchers, and policy makers lessons we must learn if we are to fight new, emergent infectious agents. Our hunter-gatherer ancestors were not afflicted with the likes of measles, mumps, and chicken pox. These diseases emerged as people moved more from place to place and populations rose. Environmental change too means the world has become the perfect culture medium for new pathogens.

We have, of course, benefited from two decades of disease research stimulated by HIV but we simply cannot predict the next new pathogen and must improve our understanding of spreading diseases if we are to face the next threat. Issues of preparedness, medical ethics, and civil liberties must be addressed urgently before the successor to SARS emerges.

Read David Bradley’s Report from Session 1: on how we can never conquer infectious diseases.

Will we ever conquer infection?

Reporting from a January 2004 Royal Society meeting on infectious diseases – The myth of a germ-free utopia

Thirty years ago various experts pronounced that we had conquered infectious disease; we could thank better hygiene, sterilized food, vaccines, and antibiotics. But, in recent years there has been renewed anxiety about infectious diseases, said epidemiologist Tony McMichael of the Australia National University, Canberra.

We have been confronted with the emergence of legionnaire’s disease, lyme disease, HIV/AIDS, human “mad cow” disease, ebola and hantaviruses, SARS, and many other new diseases. Old adversaries, such as tuberculosis, dengue fever, cholera, and malaria have re-emerged. Cholera is a case in point. A bacterium once confined mainly to South Asia, cholera kills thousands from Asia to Europe and from Africa to North and Latin America.

Pathogens are spreading more freely. McMichael blamed increased personal mobility, greater international trade, and ever more densely populated cities. Greater poverty, changes in sexual practices, and intravenous drug use too, coupled with intensive food production and some modern medical procedures have created many new openings for evolving microbes.

Environmental changes have affected how humans come into contact with microbes while social changes, at the individual and community level, ensure human networks, technology choices, politics, and the distribution of disadvantage all create new opportunities for infection.

McMichael argued that new circumstances lead to unusual contact between people and pathogens. Millions of years ago our descent from the trees exposed us to the savannah’s disease-bearing insects. The advent of agriculture and civilization brought us into closer contact with animal diseases than ever before. War and invasions helped nations swap these diseases, and European expansion spread them to the New World.

McMichael proposed that we are living through a fourth transition – a global transition. Demographic, environmental, behavioural, technological, and other changes in human ecology created an environment well suited for the emergence of new diseases. Injudicious modern medicine is to blame for drug resistance in opportunistic microbes. Climate change and changes in river ecosystems are also influencing infectious disease emergence and spread.

Many factors influence the emergence of infectious diseases so what is the relative importance of environmental and social factors, asked McMichael. Having failed to achieve the germ-free Nirvana, we must recognize the increasingly globalised microbial world that will continue to produce infectious surprises. Rather than use the militaristic hyperbole of a war on microbes, we must approach the topic within an ecological framework. This will help us anticipate the effects of environmental and social change and act accordingly.
Read on… Emerging Viruses